Minor League Data Scouting, Part Two: identifying the players

A couple of weeks back, I started as blog series on developing data driven recruitment practices on a miniscule budget. In the first part, I used data from Transfermarkt to produce a rough league tiering system, and then checked some transfer trends between these tiers to identify potential target markets for a Veikkausliiga team.

The end result was a list of low tiered leagues with a tendency to produce a comparatively high rate of successful transfers to higher tier leagues, including the German lower tiers, the Dutch third tier, the second and third tiers in Norway and Sweden as well as the Irish league. I also decided to include a couple of North American leagues, USL Championship and USL League One as well as the Canadian Premier League, because there has been a growing trend of movement to these leagues from the Veikkausliiga, and I think Finnish teams would do well to look to these growing leagues for value. In the same vein, I am also sort of interested in the English non-league and the Baltic leagues, as there are quite a few people working in Finnish football who will have ready made networks in these types of places, allowing for potentially smoother business. I also included the Japanese and South Korean lower tiers, because one of the premises of Minor League Scouting is that if you’re looking for value on the market, you need to be able to provide some kind of non-monetary value back to the player you’re interested in. East Asia (specifically Japan) is a place with a strange cultural bond to Finland, which might make it easier to convince players to move here. There is already some evidence of this in the successful transfer of Atomu Tanaka to HJK as well as some of the Japanese players that have joined Ykkönen teams in the recent past, most notably Taiki Kagayama, but also some of the players currently plying their trade there.

In this part of the series, we’re going to look at some tools for evaluating players, as well as for quickly surveying larger amounts of data. This will be done through a couple of real-life scenarios from this season. To do this, we’re going to use Wyscout data for a couple of reasons. First, Wyscout is one of the resources that most every team are using by default (InStat being the other), so, at least in theory, using their product for something like this would add nothing to the running costs of a hypothetical team. Second, Wyscout, despite not really having too many more advanced tools for playing with data, at least in the version I am using, gives you the option of exporting stats to Excel (at the player or team level). By creating a scraper that utilizes this function, you can (slowly) gather quite a vast amount of player-match level data from a large array of leagues, allowing you to build the data exploration tools yourself. For this blog, this is quite handy, as it’ll allow us to make player comparisons across leagues with very little hassle.

Inter have lost their overall most important player mid-season, as Benjamin Källman has moved to Cracovia in the Polish Ekstraklasa on a free transfer. This has been a known reality for Inter for a longer period of time, as he was never going to extend his contract, and there have been suitors after him since a year back. He was the top scorer in the league in 2021, and had continued in a similar vein of form in 2022. Let’s have a look at how his 2021 looked in terms of numbers.

The pizza graph is a visualization that started to gain traction a couple of years ago when some prominent football analytics people started using them, most notably maybe Tom Worville over at the Athletic. The format really started to proliferate about a year ago, when a tutorial post with code popped up, and now it’s maybe the most widely used player comparison graphic out there.

Basically, the way to interpret the chart, is for each slice, the higher the colored bar, the better the player has performed in that statistic. The dotted lines represent percentile rank thresholds – if the bar is higher than the first dotted line, he performs better in that statistic than 25% of the sample, the next one represents 50% and the furthest one out represents 75%. The label at the end of the bar is the numerical value of that statistic per 90 (or if it is a rate state, the rate), so Källman took 3.17 shots per 90 and had a pass completion rate of 68%. The sample for each template is based on the most usual position the players in the sample has played in any particular season, which is then categorised into one of five positional categories (Forward, Central midfielder, Fullback, Central Defender and Goalkeeper). So for this graph, we can state that Källman got more touches in the opposition box in 2021 than almost all forward playerseasons in the sample.

In 2021, after having come back to Inter after a failed foray abroad midway through the 2020 season, Källman played his most consistent season, showing the same major skill he broke onto the scene with: the ability to consistently get shots from good locations. His years abroad, however, had allowed him to supplement his skillset – now, he was also creating shots for himself by dribbling, as well as winning aerial duels. After years playing as a center forward, he was mostly deployed on the right wing, in a role that seemed tailor-made to put him in positions where he could deploy his pace and power most effectively.

In 2022, Källman has largely picked up where he left off, this time back in his favored central position – this also shows in his playing style, as he shoots and dribbles less, while winning fewer aerial duels.

To replace him, Inter have signed two players Joel Rodriguez, a 23-year old who arrived from the Spanish fourth tier, and Tobias Fagerström, who has moved back to Finland after having spent several years in the Hamburger SV system.

Rodriguez, in terms of profile, looks sort of similar to Källman in 2022. Not a massive amount of shots, but generally from good locations. He seems to lack some of the secondary skills that Källman has, though, with quite few dribbles and being poor in duels. He does, however, have good creative numbers to make up the difference. Note that Wyscout only have a limited sample of Spanish 4th tier games covered, so in terms of minutes played, the sample shown is roughly half of the minutes he played that season according to Transfermarkt.

Fagerström hasn’t played a lot for a while, his closest season of a decent sample size goes all the way back to 2018/2019 in the German fourth tier. During that season, his stats are quite reminiscent of his older brother John. Good shot locations, but too few shots. Good creative numbers, but nothing much else to speak of. This is quite a long time ago, obviously, so there is good reason to have higher expectations, but if the profile is anything to go by, if you squint, it looks sort of similar to Källman in 2022.

Jair Tavares Da Silva had made a name for himself as one of the most dynamic midfielders in the Finnish league, before it became clear that he was something else altogether. HJK acted swiftly when it came to light that he had sexually abused a 12-year old, and ended his contract then and there. That naturally left a hole in HJK’s squad, a hole that has yet to be filled.

Tavares was especially known for his abilities going forward. Although he could play in a variety of central midfield roles, he seemed to always have a knack for getting in or around the box, and making actions that affected the outcome of the game. Although HJK are yet to sign a replacement, there have been rumors of a contract offer for Dutch free agent midfielder Pelle Clement.

Clement does seem to tick a lot of the same boxes as Tavares, with maybe slightly less impact in the attacking box, and more risky passing offset by better strength in duels, he looks like an enticing alternative – especially considering these performances were in the Dutch Eredivisie. The only major question mark is the same as it always is: what good reason could there be for a good peak-age player to come to Finland?

One of this season’s sensations has been Lee Erwin of Haka, the current leading goalscorer in the league. His form has been so good, in fact, that there were rumors of a six figure bid from a Turkish club only a couple of weeks ago. Six figures! For a 28-year old! I think it’s fair to say that Haka won’t have planned for the possibility of selling Erwin, so if the bid was indeed made, it is understandable why they would have rejected it.

Erwin, much like Källman, is supremely good at getting shots from good locations. He isn’t particularly good at recovering the ball in the opposition half, and is surprisingly poor in aerials, but does just about everything else you’d want from a center forward to a very good degree. Since there has been no talk of accepting the bid for him, there has also been no speculation on a replacement.

The three above scenarios represent different situations that have come up during this season, where teams in the Veikkausliiga have found themselves needing to activate themselves in the transfer market. They are also good representations of the certain stereotypes of needs that tend to arise: sometimes, you know beforehand that you’re going to have to find a replacement mid-season; sometimes something completely unexpected happens, and you’ll have to act fast; sometimes an opportunity arises from nowhere. Being prepared to act on these scenarios is critical when building a squad, as not everything will always go as planned, and being alert to opportunities can sometimes be what allows you to speculate on players – as with all commerce, the key is to sell high and buy low.

This is where data can be very helpful. Having a good approximation of what a player is doing for your team can give you a decent baseline when looking for alternatives on the market. There will always be contextual effects that skews the data this way and that, but that is true whether you dive deeply into the data or just dip your toes in it. Either way, looking at what you’re trying to replace is a good starting point.

After you’ve established your baseline, you’re faced with wading through your data to find players who fit the bill. A popular method for doing this is using different kinds of nearest neighbor analyses. I’m no mathematician, so I couldn’t begin to explain the differences between them but I tend to use something called Mahalanobis distance, which is basically a multivariate way of calculating similarity between different sets of variables. Essentially, in our case, you feed the algorithm one player’s data, and give it a sample of players to compare against, and it produces a measure for how closely they match. This way, we can run through a large sample of data to find players who do roughly the same things as the player we are looking to replace, in basically no time.

We can also help the model out by reducing the sample. For example, we already know which leagues we are interested in. We also want to make sure the players have a big enough, and recent enough, sample to make it relevant to us. Another way of honing the model is by being more selective in the data we feed it. Since the algorithm is trying to find as close a match as possible, if you just feed it the data indiscriminately, it’s going to think that you are as interested in finding players with similar weaknesses as you are of finding players with similar strengths, so it makes sense to limit the measures we feed it. In this case, I’ve decided to only use the player’s top 6 measures by percentile rank (among the measures chosen for the pizza template in question).

In the case of Benjamin Källman, it would look something like this:

Above are the plots of the ten nearest neighbors to Benjamin Källman 2021 from the previously mentioned leagues, overlayed with Källman’s 2021 Veikkausliiga plot. I recommend spending a little while interpreting the graph because it is quite dense with information – essentially, each slice of pizza has two colors overlayed, green for the player in question, and white for the player we’re comparing to, in this case Källman. The portion of the slice that is white, is overlap between the players, the portion that is grey, is Källman being better than the other player, the portion that is green is the player being better than Källman.

Overall, I like the look of Nick van Staveren the most, while also being intrigued by the Regionalliga players and Jamie McGonigle. Macauley Longstaff has just moved to Notts County, so he wouldn’t be an alternative. Sung-Yoon Lee looks particularly interesting but he carries a massive sample size warning. Let’s also have a look at 2022.

If we’re looking for a 2022 replica of Källman, Marcley Manuela would be an interesting free agent pick-up, while Luther Archimede could be a decent gamble as his contract is up in November. Henry Offia and Riki Tomas Alba would probably be surer bets, but they probably have their eyes on an Allsvenskan/Eliteserien gig.

In the Källman example, we’re extremely late – some of the players have already moved while all of this data existed already in late May. When it comes to player recruitment, timing is of the essence, and as we’ve known for a while that Källman was leaving, this could have been a continuous process throughout the spring. Especially in combination with detailed video scouting, I think it could have been a fruitful exercise in Inter’s search for a replacement, and time will tell whether Inter got it right with the choices they made.

In the case of Tavares there are also some interesting options.

My eye is immediately drawn to Motoki Hasegawa and Ryotaro Ito, as very similar profile players (incidentally, it looks like both of their contracts are up this January). Christopher Scott is a good example of the dangers of this approach, as he put up the numbers above for… Bayern II, so he’s off the board. Deocleciano looks like the typical Latvian scheme to move a player forward so I don’t think we’re interested even if the player looks decent. The same goes for Gabriel Ramos Da Penha, and he looks to be a winger in any case. Laurent Kissiedou could be interesting, and his contract is up in November.

Realistically, I think a team like HJK could probably do a deal for either of the two Japanese players or Kissiedou, if there was mutual interest. It would very likely require an outlay from the club, and the player’s wages would probably be quite high from a Finnish baseline, but the profile of player would be exactly what a team like HJK should be looking for: young but not too young, on a short contract, with a point to prove in Europe, and recent history of excellence elsewhere. With some strong performances in continental qualifiers, the financial side of it could quickly start to look like an afterthought.

Let’s, finally, have a look at Erwin:

We’re looking for a quick buy that would allow us to earn a profit on the sale of Erwin while keeping us competitive, so Christian Moses is out of the question as he has moved to IFK Värnamo in the Allsvenskan. I’m also not sure about Jabiri, Guven and Karlsen due to their respective ages. Nollenberger plays. 3. Bundesliga nowadays, Muhsin is one of the top goalscorers in Superettan, Vinjor is listed as a central midfielder by Transfermarkt and is putting up strong performances in the second tier of Norway. This leaves us with Benedict Laverty, who is listed as a left winger but looks like he could be potentially gettable, Lucas Hedlund, who hasn’t played a lot, but has scored when he has, in Superettan this season, and Paul Stock, who in fairness looks the most similar to Erwin of the above bunch.

It’s difficult to know for sure, but I’m not unconvinced that one of these players could be bought for a high five figures, low six figures offer – another question is whether they would want to join. I’d also consider it quite likely that the performances would translate to the Veikkausliiga, at least to the extent that the players would be productive, if not re-saleable.

Squad building isn’t as easy as just arranging some number from best to worst and picking whomever is highest, but I’d also argue that it doesn’t have to be the kind of 4D chess it is made out to be at times. By allowing the data to suggest players for you, one can rid oneself of some of the biases that influence decision making, and – more importantly – take control of the talent identification process, which for many teams is led by people with severe conflicts of interest. It can also allow you to focus your scouting from larger areas to specific players in local markets, helping you to target only the type of player worth spending time on.

The point isn’t to claim to have some silver bullet to solve all transfer woes – no matter how good the talent identification is, the bigger problem will always be to convince players to make the move to a league that is far from glamorous. However, even with the limited amount of inside knowledge I have about the inner workings of Veikkausliiga transfers, implementing something like the above, by my estimate, would have the potential to improve squad building decision making quite significantly, for basically no cost.

I have a third part of this series lined up, but won’t reveal any details until I get it researched and written, in the meantime, follow me on Twitter for future updates!

Peak-age crisis

I’ve been meaning to write about squad construction and the peak age concept in Minor Leagues for a long time now, but haven’t had the right mixture of time and tools to do so. This has changed a little bit in the past year or so, as I have put a lot of time into ironing out some creases concerning data storage and ETL, and developing a possession value model.

Possession value models are attempts at evaluating different events based on how they impact the probability of scoring or conceding a goal. There are several frameworks out there (like StatsBomb’s OBV, Karun Singh’s xT, VAEP or ASA’s Goals Added), with some differences in methodology. The fundamental idea remains the same however: based on historical data a successful pass from location A to location B increases the probability of scoring by X, we divide X among the contributing players (passer, receiver etc) in some fashion.

There is obviously a danger in focusing too much on this kind of model: an as yet (mostly) unknown proportion of value on the pitch is created by off the ball actions, so results should be taken with a pinch of salt. However, used cautiously, this can be a very valuable addition to the analyst’s toolbox, in different contexts. The model I chose to emulate was Goals Added (also known as g+), as the folks over at American Soccer Analysis posted a detailed discussion about the measure as a whole, but also about the methodology more specifically. It spoke to me for many different reasons, and one of the major ones was that it isn’t just a framework for evaluating possession actions, but also takes defensive actions into account.

One of the foremost contexts in which g+ can be used, is comparing players between positional categories at the top level. It isn’t quite WAR, but it does something similar in anchoring the language around something concrete that is fundamentally important to the sport, namely goals (or expected such). This means, at least hypothetically, that you can use the same currency when evaluating the impact of a centre forward as a centre back: the value of their actions on the pitch measured in goals. In fact, ASA even have a goalkeeping module, which translates goalkeeping events into g+. I haven’t gotten as far yet, although most of the building blocks are in place.

Squad construction is largely a question of resource optimization, in which the party doing the constructing needs to balance a large array of factors to create a best possible fit. These factors include: budget, playing minutes, short term squad quality, long term squad quality, squad cohesion among others. A successful squad construction is one that fits into the organizations short term objectives (e.g. league position) while remaining on track to hit long term objectives without overextending the organization financially.

A factor that complicates this thinking in Finland is that long term objectives are usually vague, as team finances tend to be on wobbly ground which directly affects the length of personnel contracts (both players and backroom staff). It is also something that is emphasized less at board level – where there may be some overarching ‘goals’ for the long term that mostly lack any measurable link to the other relevant factors (budget, short term objectives etc). The effect of this is that long term objectives become pie in the sky entities separated from short term objectives that are dismissed post hoc as irrelevant – among these are usually ‘making money in the transfer market’ or ‘getting into Europe’.

This means that, as teams in Finland live hand to mouth, the bulk of squads are usually built with the upcoming season in mind, rather than anything beyond that. It’s partly a necessity due to the labile nature of Finnish football, but is also partly due to a lack of focus on the longer term and poor talent identification.

Squad construction analysis is essentially built around the footballer aging curve, which tends to look something like this:

I've been lazily searching for some kind of peak age graphic for a bit and then it just falls into my lap. #blessed https://t.co/EtrRXvTs7m
— Minor League Soccer (@Minor_LS) February 12, 2021

Although there is some positional variance, players tend to have quite a steep development curve up until their early-mid twenties after which they plateau for a while, and then head into a slow decline as they age. This is important to know, and take into account, as a team is built to fit its short- and long term objectives, because age can be used to approximate future player performance. If we decide that we want to be competitive within three years, the most prudent strategy might be to bulk up on pre-peak players, allow them to gel together as they develop, and hit their peak in a couple of season’s time. If we’re expecting to be competitive immediately, signing peak-age players could be considered smart thinking as they are likely to be more productive than their counterparts on either side of the age distribution. Player salaries also usually follow a similar trajectory, with younger players being less expensive than peak-aged players, which means that if you want to build a team on a budget, having an eye on the squad’s age profile is a good idea.

This concept works well at the top level and in the aggregate. Compare two completely random players, one being 20 and the other being 26, and it is highly likely that the latter will be better. What complicates this thinking is when you drill down to a more local level and apply existing market restrictions. For example, for a player in Finland, there is a ceiling for how well they can play before their perceived value on the global market will surpass their internal valuation, and if the player stays above that ceiling for a long enough sample of playing time, they will essentially remove themselves from the sample – at least for the time being. This is affected by two additional things: contract duration (pushing their internal valuation down as time left on the deal shortens) and player age (the older a player is, the less enticing the foreign opportunities will be). This means that while the individual player development curve will regularly have the expected look to it (rising until it hits mid-20’s, then stagnating and falling as the player gets into their 30’s), as a whole, market forces will create a different picture.

Due to the position of the Finnish market, access to known high quality peak age players is essentially minimal. If a foreign player is good enough, there will be some other reason for why they are accessible (injury, personality, something else). If the peak age player is domestic, there will be some reason for why they aren’t playing abroad as that is what the vast majority of professionals in Finland dream of – even going to the lengths of moving to foreign lower tiers to realize this dream.

A contributing factor to this effect is the high standards of living in Finland, and the relatively low wages on offer for professional footballers. For a young player, making 800€ a month can sound like a decent proposition because the alternatives are school or a better-but-still-low-paying, less interesting job. The older a player gets, the more difficult it becomes to justify hanging on to those final hopes of realizing the dreams of a professional career. Other countries also suffer from the same thing, with Norway having such high entry level wages for menial jobs that many young players, at an even earlier age, opt for the safety of a steady paycheck over the career rollercoaster of professional sports. There is naturally a trickle down effect, with players who get cut at higher levels going down levels to work their way back up, but – again – it is difficult for any peak age player to justify moving to a different country to play for 1500€ a month, unless that money is significantly more than they can make where they reside at the time.

Basically, for any individual league, an age curve will ultimately be strongly affected by player development, but also by availability. This will naturally also have some implications for people trying to construct squads in this environment.

If you look at the picture in the embedded tweet, you’ll notice that the y-axis lacks a label. The measure being displayed is probably some type of player quality measure – something in the same ball park as goals added, for example – but could also be something like a playing time distribution. At the top level, minutes played is a decent proxy for player quality as generally, good players tend to get picked over less good players. If you look at the playing time distribution for what I have dubbed the ‘Big leagues’ (the top tier in England, Spain, France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands), you’ll notice that it follows a similar pattern. Note that I haven’t plotted minutes played, because the maximum amount of playing time available for a player is dependent on the amount of matches they play, rather, I have taken the proportion of the maximum available minutes that each player has played, and plotted the mean for each ageseason.

_{Playing time distribution in the big leagues, data from transfermarkt.com}

A steep curve followed by a plateau, and a slow decline. Let’s have a look at the same graph for Finland (top two tiers).

_{Playing time distribution in Finland’s top two tiers, data from InStat}

This doesn’t look at all like the previous picture. This looks more like a steep increase, and then a slightly less steep increase which doesn’t seem to tail off at all. Let’s compare the two by overlaying them. The Finnish data only contains players with over 100 minutes of action so we’ll also add that condition to the Big leagues data here.

_{Playing time distribution for Big leagues versus Finland}

The plots seem to follow the same trajectory roughly until age 24 which is when the plateau starts in the Big leagues. The Finnish plot also hits something of a plateau but there is a slight growing trend that continues even as the other plot starts its decline. The difference between the plots keeps growing as we get into the 30’s. There are several potential reasons for this effect. For one, the higher the level, the more physically taxing the game is, which will likely start to push players out as they age. This trickle down effect essentially leads to (mostly domestic) players coming to Finland late in their careers and being capable of carrying a higher workload than for their previous clubs. There are also fewer minutes in total in a Finnish season, so it could be considered more reasonable for any player to receive a larger share compared to the top tiers where there are more games. There is also a survival effect on display. Since wages are low in Finland, players likely retire earlier rather than stick around to play reduced roles, leading to older players being generally of higher quality as ‘survival’ in itself is a signal of some ability. Also, significantly, there is a sample size consideration in the older age categories.

I think it’s interesting to note that Finnish teams look like they are more reliant on peak-age/older players than teams in the Big leagues, as this doesn’t quite track with the idea that there would be a peak age gap. Let’s have a look at player quality as measured by goals added, then.

_{Goals added performance per ageseason in Finland}

It looks similar to the playing time distribution but the slope seems far less steep. There might be something of an optical illusion in play as well, as the bumps in quality after age 31 make it seem like there would be almost linear growth throughout, but if we only look at the preceding ages, the profile looks more like expected. Let’s compare this graph to the playing time distribution. Essentially this can be done by comparing the median for each age category to the full sample median, essentially giving us a plot that tells us how ‘quickly’ a player can be expected to reach median level in both playing time and playing quality.

_{Player quality of performance versus quantity of playing time in Finnish top two tiers}

What we can see from this graph is that the distributions are fairly aligned, but with an increasing gap between ages 24 and 33 (apart from ages 29 and 30). This essentially tells us that in this age range the median player is getting more playing time than their median quality would indicate that they deserve.

So what we have is a situation where on average players in peak age and beyond seem to be utilized more than the quality they produce would dictate, an effect that dissipates and almost reverses as we reach the latter years of a player’s career. The average is instructive of course, but it’s worth having a look at the full distribution of playerseasons, because the edge cases can also show us something.

_{Goals added playerseason distribution}

So in general, I think we would expect the tops of the distribution to follow the average more or less accurately, but that isn’t the case here. Essentially the best playerseasons come from players in the 21-24 age range as well as 32-34, whereas the peak ages in between are quite a lot lower. It’s also worth noting that from age 22 onwards the minimum stays relatively similar but starts to grow as the players age. Essentially, the older ages get their highish average quality from a tighter distribution and the younger ages have higher variance but contain some of the best ageseasons.

In summary, I think it’s fair to say that there is a weird skew in the Finnish age curve, whether you look at minutes played or some other measure. I think this could be considered a big problem for Finnish football – a league’s peak age players will essentially be what it is built around. One could argue that player wages are a factor. If players could see themselves having a good career making a decent living playing domestically, maybe they wouldn’t have to glance abroad at the end of every season. It also would encourage younger players to keep playing even if they realise that they might never reach the levels they’ve dreamed about. At the moment, it feels like each season has a player retiring pre-peak despite having posted decent numbers previously.

A league that struggles to retain its peak age players is a league in trouble. Peak age player availability can be displayed with one further graph, by measuring the proportion of the population in each age group.

_{Amount of players per age category in the Big leagues versus top two tiers of Finland}

Lest you think that this is merely due to including a couple of seasons of Klubi 04 and one season of SJK Akatemia, let’s have a look at the same graph without Ykkönen.

_{Amount of players per age category in the Big leagues versus Veikkausliiga}

What the graphs show is that there is a dearth of players in the peak age range, something which is corrected at age 31.

This has several implications, chief of which being that recruitment and retention of peak age (or pre-peak age) players isn’t working in Finland. Retaining good Finnish players is practically going to be impossible as long as wages are at the level they are as the temptation of moving abroad is just too large – as it is right now, there are players who accept similar wages from abroad just to get a chance to try it out. Finnish players will make up the larger part of the sample, and access to peak age players is going to be difficult by default, but I wonder if the bigger issue isn’t that we aren’t able to add good (for the level) peak age players from abroad. Just as players from Finland will go anywhere to get a move to a foreign team, I wonder if there aren’t markets where Finland could be that destination. By having a scattergun approach, relying on intermediaries and established markets, Finnish teams by default get the absolute bottom of the barrel. I wonder if the better approach wouldn’t be to establish a presence in some of the markets where Finland would be a genuinely good next step, some of which could even be considered growth markets for footballing talent – think Balticum, Iceland, Faroe Islands, some of the Asian/African leagues, Canada, USL – and then put an effort into talent identification. Even if the median Faroese player isn’t good enough for Ykkönen, the top 1-2% would certainly be good additions for basically any Finnish team (just look at Petur Knudsen, for example, who was shopped around Finland last January but ended up moving to Denmark). The big issue, obviously, is finding out who the 1-2% are, but that’s mostly just a matter of putting in the hours.

For this, one could follow the Canadian Premier League model, of having centralized talent identification, a system that has worked well for the teams in the league. Basically, rather than the teams having to spend resources they don’t have on identifying players to recruit, the league does some of the job for them, amassing a scouting pool from which they can select the players they like. Essentially, this kind of system would mostly make teams less reliant on intermediaries when exploring options, and would help teams with fewer resources become more proactive in their player recruitment.

For a team in Finland, there are some further interesting implications. First of all, if you want to be competitive, it doesn’t necessarily make sense to load up on peak age players. Partly because there simply aren’t that many of them, partly because they tend to be more expensive than they are good, and partly because they probably won’t want to sign on for more than until the next transfer window if they are any good. Aging returnees are a highly coveted segment of their own, but they are already out of reach for most of the market anyway. Would Tim Sparv, Jukka Raitala or Joona Toivio have signed for anyone other than HJK? And if the answer is yes, how many teams could have afforded them? The segment of the market where there is value to be found tends to be pre-peak. I’ve been outspoken in my support for the Wiss-era Ilves squad building strategy, mostly because I think it’s been the most consistent and cohesive. I also think that among all the Finnish teams in the past decade or so, they are the ones who have managed to produce the most with the least, and will remain very underrated. The average age of the squads they produced is one thing, but the consistency of performances is the thing that is really impressive. So for a team that can’t afford aging returnees, the optimal strategy should be to build around players in their early twenties with some signs of competence (either domestically or from abroad) – naturally if you can sign a good player, you should, irrespective of their age, but consider the long term implications and whether it disrupts other parts of the puzzle. If at all possible, try signing your good young players to longer contracts, and try to do it at first sign of a breakout rather than the season after.

For a team that can sign aging returnees, it is a valid strategy to do so. It is, however, worth bearing in mind that while the age curve for Finland might look skewed in the aggregate, individual players still go through the same symptoms of age related decline, so building a team around aging players might be destructive in the long term, especially if getting the player now means signing him on for additional years on similar wages with lesser expected output. Do not align wage with age, if a player is good and young, try to sign them up on a longer contract on proper wages. Try to avoid signing late-peak players from abroad.

And finally, some heuristics when thinking about squad building in a market like Finland:

“When considering a player, try to critically imagine a reason why he would join your club. If the reason doesn’t satisfy you, you shouldn’t sign the player”

“When considering a player, only sign them if you can think of a single realistic scenario in which you can sell them on in one year’s time, even if you wouldn’t want to sell them”

“Signs of some competence at a lower level is more valuable than signs of some incompetence at a higher level”

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Veikkausliiga Tempo Q&A – Jussi Leppälahti

I wrote a blog last week about the decreasing tempo of the Veikkausliiga, and on different ways in which it could be improved. In it, I acknowledged how it was skewed by my perspective, and so I wanted to bring another viewpoint – and eventually other viewpoints – to the table.

So when I got a chance to ask Jussi Leppälahti some questions pertaining to this trend, I jumped on the opportunity. The questions were asked in Finnish, and translated to English by yours truly, so if there are any misused terms or some roughness in the flow of the text that’s all me.

Who are you? What is your current role within Finnish football? What is your football background?

My name is Jussi Leppälahti, I’m the head coach of JIPPO Joensuu, currently playing in the Finnish third tier (Kakkonen). My background as a player is from FC Honka as a youth player, and from FC Espoo and HIFK in the third tier as an adult. I retired from playing in 2010, at age 24 and I have coached for 13 years in youth and adult football.

The Veikkausliiga tempo is slowing down, does this worry you? Why? How much?

A very difficult and multifaceted question. I know that player agents and scouts relate player level to league level, and that the low tempo of the Veikkausliiga can therefore affect the likelihood of a player getting a move to a better foreign league. The low tempo of the league can also make the players comfortable with a level of play which is far from what is needed in better leagues. Thus it is probably an issue that should be discussed through facts, as you did in your blog.

The decrease in tempo doesn’t worry me per se, but it worries me if it is only being discussed carelessly on the top level, without bringing concrete and realistic solutions to the table. The low tempo is an eternal question for Finnish football, because it has to do with the know-how of the players – the actual problem is the deficiencies in player know-how, which directly leads to a lower tempo game.

How do you think the decrease in tempo affects the game, the players, in the short/long term?

Let’s start by defining tempo as the amount of actions within a particular time unit. The tempo can then decrease for two reasons: either because opponents don’t press the ball carrier to decrease the amount of time they have to make decisions, or because the ball carrying players are acting slowly when doing game actions for other reasons. Considering this notion, it is clear that if the players don’t become familiar, or if they are not familiarized with, doing game actions quicker, developing to the following level of competition becomes challenging – breaking through on the international scene is difficult. This is true both on the team level as well as the player level.

Outside of the Finnish league system there is less time and less space, which means that there is suddenly a need to do game actions in a smaller window of time.

Why do you think that the tempo is slowing?

The first big theme is that player know-how is deficient. Know-how is a sum of many parts.

Firstly, the player’s ability to make diverse movements, in other words physical motor skills, and on-the-ball skills need to be on a high level in order to be able to execute game actions explosively. The average Veikkausliiga player has severe deficiencies in both departments. You cannot produce game actions according to optimal decision making if it isn’t something that your body can physically do or if you cannot produce the technique required.

Secondly, the basic level of technique among players should be at a high level in order to achieve international levels of tempo as an adult. Among adult players today, this is possibly at an even worse level. Do players know the concept of the third player intuitively? Or the basic models of moving into a position where the ball can be played to you? Or upkeep of body position and models of movement? Do players know to pass to the optimal foot? Do players know the basic mechanisms of creating space? Do they know the basics of evading marking? Or positioning between the lines? Shadow movement? Or the basic decision models for overloads in different directions? These basic concepts of playing should be under control when the player reaches adult age, but aren’t currently. These are matters of player development. That being said, it gladdens me to see that the next generation is better than the previous one in these matters.

Another big theme is whether we are refining players in the right way from a physical and player position perspective at B-junior and adult levels. The answer to this question is unfortunately that we rarely are.

A third big theme is the ability of coaches at Veikkausliiga level to coach a higher tempo game, which would include a high line of pressure and quality progression. Let’s take this moment to emphasize that tempo doesn’t increase by fumbling vertically in a disorganized manner, as almost all Veikkausliiga teams used to do about 10 years ago. The level at which Veikkausliiga teams progress the ball in an organized manner these days varies a lot. It is heavily dependent on whether the coaches can teach their team to form quality situations for vertical progression.

How would you apportion responsibility for this development among these stakeholders: Palloliitto, the league, the teams, the coaches, the players, the players’ representation (parents, agents etc)?

I think everyone needs to carry their responsibility. We need to get better players and coaches to the adult level – in order for that to happen we need effective cooperation between all stakeholder groups.

What could these different stakeholder groups do to increase the tempo/intensity of the domestic game?

Better players and coaches aren’t developed through a snap of the fingers. We need long term, efficient work in order to work on the aforementioned themes. It is obvious, for example, that coaches want to win games. If their player material is lead footed, and the basic concepts of defending among the players is lacking, they will pull back their defensive line and guard their behinds. This, again, will affect the actions of the attacking team.

It would obviously be nice if the teams in the Veikkausliiga would, as an example, start to press higher and in a more synchronized manner, but to learn how to do that requires testing, teaching and time. It doesn’t work by just setting out to do a lot of running in the opponent’s half. Decision makers within the teams should be able to understand if the coach strives to develop new patterns in the long term, and believe in this long term thinking, if so.

Can you think of any low hanging fruits for Finnish football – ideas which would be fairly easy to implement which could have a large impact?

There are surely inexpensive things. The Veikkausliiga teams can surely afford to train for longer, as well as preparing for and recovering from training in a better and more diverse manner. Do more tactical training, use video more/better.

Nutrition is one thing that is definitely lacking which has an immediate impact on performance. Are the fat percentages of the players at a sufficient level?

The match schedule could be implemented in a better manner, because it also affects player performance as well as the ability to act explosively on the pitch.

Massive thanks to Jussi for answering my questions! I’m thinking of making this into a series of sort, with perspectives from different stakeholders of Finnish football – if you’re in a position of influence in Finnish football – maybe you’re a player, maybe an FA/league rep, maybe some other stakeholder – and feel like you want to make a contribution, hit me up on Twitter– my DMs are open – or via email.

The Prospect, or There and Back Again

During the summer of 2017 the Veikkausliiga seemed to be on the precipice of a rarely seen wave of exciting young talent breaking through domestically, and therefore earning fairly priced moves abroad. Alfredo Morelos turned out to be a steal for Glasgow Rangers, and will probably earn them their money back multiple times over if they decide to move him on before his contract runs out. Mikael Soisalo had moved to Middlesbrough the previous January, Saku Ylätupa had gone to Ajax during the summer window and Timo Stavitski packed his bags for Caen the following January. All of the moves were greeted with great fanfare – finally, the Finnish league had become a talent feeder for the big leagues.

Ah, the heady days of summer! The sun rested high in the sky and the possibilities seemed endless. Now, on the other hand, it feels like it’s been raining for a decade and Mikael Soisalo has just had to change his address for the third time in four years as he heads for the Portuguese second division. Maybe that 2017 outlook was a little premature after all?

For someone who spends a lot of time thinking about domestic football, I have a tendency to harp on about players moving abroad. It doesn’t stem from disrespect for the Finnish league system as much as it does from a feeling that it is a necessity for the proper development of a young footballer to move abroad; spend a lot of time in Finland as a footballer, and you’re unfortunately not going to be exposed to the best development circumstances, the highest level of competition, the best wages. Going abroad, then, is the thing that all players playing in Finland should aspire to, and something clubs in Finland should actively encourage their players to do.

It is therefore difficult to argue that Soisalo, Stavitski or Ylätupa should have done anything differently. Read interviews with Finnish players who have moved to the Estonian league, the Irish league or the Norwegian third tier and you’ll invariably stumble upon the notion that playing abroad is something that every player dreams about, and only a rare few get to experience. Being snobbish about where you go, or even when you go, is a luxury players in Finland unfortunately can’t really afford – especially if the deal in question has the potential to significantly boost the selling club’s finances, like in the case of Stavitski and RoPS.

It might be difficult to argue, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be attempted, as it is a discussion worth having. Development is a tricky business, and any one player only has one career, so making the right maneuvers at the right time is of great importance. It isn’t quite as dramatic as only getting one chance to make the right move – Teemu Pukki is a case in point for how a talented player will keep getting chances until he figures it out, if he ever figures it out – but young players can help themselves quite a lot by removing the worst options from the equation.

There are, as far as I can tell, a couple of factors directly affecting player development in football: coaching quality, playing time, match quality, individual thresholds (physical, mental, technical). There is a discussion to be had whether there’s a technological aspect being forgotten in the above list, like access to equipment, analytics, the correct mindset – read The MVP Machine for a perspective on this – but I’m not sure if tech in football is mature enough to be worth a mention.

The problem with the the above trio of players – to me at least – is that they all jumped too many levels at one go before even really proving that they could dominate in the Veikkausliiga. Essentially putting more weight on coaching quality and match quality and less weight on playing time. For a young player, I think this is a massive mistake as I would consider playing time the most important factor for player development by far. Coaching is important, but whatever it is you learn on the training ground, you need to be able to put into practice, and you can’t do that if you aren’t playing. If you aren’t playing, the level at which you would be playing is merely anecdotal.

I don’t mean to say that Ylätupa, Stavitski or Soisalo weren’t good when they were playing in Finland – they definitely were, to varying degrees. It’s just that they weren’t dominant, and if you’re going to be making several level-jumps at one go, you should be able to show that you aren’t troubled by Veikkausliiga-level opponents.

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Soisalo and Stavitski both showed good ball carrying ability, and had good creative numbers but had little in terms of goalmouth presence. Soisalo ended up scoring a bunch of goals in 2016, but he was Ilves’ designated penalty taker, so had some padded goal numbers. Stavitski has always had electric pace, which is a projectable tool, which is probably also the reason why he attracted the amount of interest he did.

Ylätupa, on the other hand, had some fairly pedestrian numbers, but showed some really nice flashes of ability during his brief spell at RoPS. He was, apparently, recommended to Ajax by Jari Litmanen, so it is unclear exactly how much they knew about him apart from the recommendation.

As an aside, the ability that the players have in common is dribbling, being able to carry the ball long stretches, which is straight out of the Pep Guardiola scouting handbook.

In all three cases, the numbers are good for the age and the level, but from a developmental perspective, I’m not sure that’s enough. Even in a new, better environment you need playing time to keep progressing, and in order to get playing time, you need to be productive on the pitch.

The added bonus of playing time is that it serves the purpose of establishing where in the football hierarchy you are currently situated. If you’re a good player in the Veikkausliiga then an Allsvenskan club can be fairly certain that you would do pretty well for them. If you continue to do well at Allsvenskan level, then a team further up in the food chain can be assured that you might be a good fit for them. A player on the books of a big club with no senior appearances ends up falling between the gaps a little bit, as youth football is fundamentally different from senior football. And sure, smart clubs like Brentford can exploit that fact by aggressively pursuing players who drop out of academies, without making a final breakthrough, but even so, you need to catch the eye of the smart teams for that to become a possibility, and even that isn’t a sure thing. In many of the cases of Finns moving abroad at a young age, it seems like they quite quickly disappear into the grey mass of the destination academy. A superstar prospect in Finland isn’t guaranteed to look anything but ordinary in a different setting with different expectations – Saku Ylätupa being a prime example of this.

Saku Ylätupa leaves Ajax to join AIK. The 19-year-old didn't play regularly in Amsterdam and is another example of a recent foreign youth signing that didn't make it.

— Sjors van Veen (@SjorsvVeen) January 29, 2019

Going abroad also removes any advantage a player has for being local. If you grew up next door to the stadium, people are going to find intangible reasons for you to get another chance, but if you’re just another foreign import, you’re going to need to start showing signs of development from day one, or you’re out the door.

The other side of the coin is that once you’re out of the door, you’re falling from a much higher place than before. If you drop out of the Veikkausliiga, you’re going to face an uphill battle just to stay relevant. Mikael Soisalo, instead, fell from Middlesbrough to the Belgian league to the Portuguese second tier and Ylätupa fell from Ajax to AIK. If they had made those moves from Finland at the same juncture of their careers, they would possibly have been seen as great developmental moves for both players.

And there’s no reason to think that they can’t be! As mentioned previously, Teemu Pukki has done a lot of level-jumping in his career – both back and forth – and has now settled at the highest possible level as a very productive player – it doesn’t seem to have hurt him. Only, using the biggest Finnish talent of a generation as a template isn’t necessary optimal – not all prospects will have that inherent level of talent to carry them during their low points. And maybe Pukki would have settled quicker if his development path had been managed better. That he finally did break out the way he did is testament to his willpower and hard work, but could he have found his previously elusive work rate sooner if he had made better decisions?

It’s impossible to know for sure, every player is an individual which makes it difficult to make comparisons. The one thing I would take from Pukki’s development path, though, is that the key moments in his career have been decisions to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. The biggest moves for him were to take the dreaded maitojuna back to Finland to play for HJK and to go to Bröndby after having played for Schalke and Celtic. These were the kind of realistic, mature and pragmatic moves that gave him the platform to reach the heights he has, and although Soisalo, Stavitski and Ylätupa have all taken steps back after their initial moves, their steps maybe haven’t been far enough back (in fairness to Stavitski, he did return to RoPS on loan last season but injured himself before the season started).

This is something that some smarter clubs will do for you nowadays. At the very top level, teams now have specialized staff managing player loans to make sure that the players keep developing even though they are temporarily outside of the club’s control. Below that level, though, it becomes the responsibility of the player himself (or his representation) to demand this type of attention. Take Lassi Lappalainen as an example: instead of going to Bologna directly, he’ll have a season of MLS under his belt before facing that fight. He had established himself as a top senior player in Finland and made sure that he was going to get senior games at the next level. Joel Pohjanpalo is another good example, first a loan back to HJK, then a couple of seasons in the 2. Bundesliga before going to a patiently waiting Leverkusen.

It’ll be interesting to follow where Soisalo’s, Stavitski’s and Ylätupa’s careers take them, especially considering that there is a decent control group in Lassi Lappalainen and potentially Eetu Vertainen of players with roughly the same potential, playing roughly similar positions, with roughly similar youth paths who have made different decisions in formative stages of their careers.

So, if we recognize that this is a thorny issue with few objectively correct answers, what should a young player in Finland do if faced with this kind of dilemma?

The below chart shows some numbers for players who have moved abroad from Finland since 2013. On the y-axis we have ageseasons which is basically the age at which the player is playing during a particular season. On the x-axis we have the age of the player when they made the move abroad. The color of the tile shows the average of level adjusted minutes, with redder being more – the level adjustment is essentially a multiplier based on the level of competition.

What the chart suggests is that an early move is no guarantee for future success, in fact 18 seems to be the youngest recommended age to move, and waiting even longer seems like a decent idea. This matches up with the idea that breaking through in the Veikkausliiga should be the first thought on players’ minds before dreaming about a career abroad. Does this mean that a player should hang around in Finland until he turns 21? I wouldn’t say so, but I do think that you should always move to play, and to play senior football, wherever you go, and that if you make a jump of several levels, that you should require a more-or-less immediate loan, either back to the Veikkausliiga, or to an only slightly higher level. As I keep saying, the most important statistic for a young player is the amount of minutes you play.

The same tendency can be noticed from the current Huuhkajat-setup as well. How many of the current regulars left Finland before making a Veikkausliiga or Ykkönen appearance? I count Jesse Joronen (who had a loan stint at Lahti), Lukas Hradecky, Tim Sparv and Fredrik Jensen while Glen Kamara, Robert Taylor and Thomas Lam were naturalized, so started off abroad. The rest, at least to some extent, established a footing in the domestic leagues before pushing onward.

Although this can’t necessarily be considered proof of anything, it should still serve as a counterweight to the inevitable lure of glory that a big club’s academy represents for an impressionable young player.

Thanks for reading, give me a follow on Twitter!

Veikkausliiga plug and play signings

It’s January, so the transfer window is open. In Finland, preseason isn’t going to kick into gear for another month-or-so but in most other countries, we’re heading into the period of the season where the home stretch is starting to come into view. Now is the time to add to your squad if you want a mid-season boost of energy! Only, January is mostly a terrible time to buy players due to inflated prices and most good players being too important for their clubs to be moved in the middle of a season. Finland, luckily for this piece, is almost completely exempt from these market factors as player prices are mostly very moderate, and the season being summer-centric. Could Finland then maybe be a good place for teams to find some value if there is none to be found elsewhere?

The usual answer to this question would be a fairly straightforward no, but we’ve had some recent examples of players going straight from the Veikkausliiga into the starting eleven of a team in a stronger league and providing positive value. Alfredo Morelos is maybe the biggest Veikkausliiga outlier in quite some time, so maybe he’s a bad example, but Lassi Lappalainen jumped straight into the Montreal Impact team and started scoring. Santeri Hostikka has played a varied half season of Ekstraklasa football for one of the better teams in the league, Joao Klauss is doing well in the Austrian league, as did Dever Orgill before he moved to Turkey. Roope and Riku Riski played respectable careers abroad before returning home. Rasmus Karjalainen has played competently in the Eredivisie, and Leo Väisänen has been an important part of Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (before getting a move to Elfsborg). After struggling in Scotland, Benjamin Källman has been his usual self in Denmark and Norway, and Onni Valakari, Juha Pirinen and Robert Taylor had varied seasons as key cogs of relegated Tromsö. A mention to Pyry Soiri as well, who has stuck abroad longer than I anticipated, even if he’s gone from club to club.

The above list isn’t exhaustive, of course, but it supports my point which is that finding decent players from Finland is far from impossible. If you’re one of the best players in this tier, then surely you should be at least a good player one tier up. It’s inevitably a crap shoot, but that’s the beauty of it, and the risk is usually something that can be noticed in the price as well. So let’s have a look at some players who could be of interest to clubs in Scandinavia, Central Europe, North America and maybe even the lower reaches of England who could have an immediate impact.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper is a tricky position to evaluate because hypothetical buying teams might have completely different requirements for the position. In any case, if nothing else, you want your goalkeeper to be a good shot stopper, so let’s look at that particular trait. The best shot stopper in the past season was Maksim Rudakov of HJK – in fact, he’s the best shot stopper of all keepers who have faced more than 100 shots on target in the league since 2013. Only thing is, he’s back at Zenit St. Petersburg after a two-season-long loan. Without really knowing, I’d assume he’s available, so he probably qualifies, but we’re interested in the Finnish league system here. Tim Murray of Honka pops up as an alternative and seeing as they have a couple of young promising Finnish goalkeepers on their books, they might be open for a bid. If you’re looking for an under-the-radar option that you’ve never heard of, Jonathan Jäntti is a player who has been the best goalkeeper in the second tier two seasons in a row, for two different teams, whose cumulative numbers should be enough to, at the very least, get him a job in the top tier in Finland. I would assume that shot stopping is something that translates fairly well from league to league, so a budget conscious, ambitious foreign club willing to take a calculated gamble should maybe have a look, especially since he’s a free agent and would presumably be OK with a trial.

Center backs

If there’s any one outfield position where Finland has consistently been able to produce quality players, it’s probably center back. HJK, in particular, have had a decent pipeline of center backs who have moved abroad, mostly due to having the top youth system in the country, but also because they tend to hoover up the best players in the league before they attract the interest of foreign teams. They did so with Faith Obilor in 2017, and his performances since have created a modicum of international hype. He was close to a move in the summer of 2018, before ending up signing a new deal with HJK. He’s not very young anymore, but is in good shape, and has the kind of physical upside that is difficult to find almost anywhere in the world.

If Obilor were to move in January, it wouldn’t surprise me if HJK went after Robert Ivanov of Honka to replace him. As a converted midfielder, he excels on the ball, but also specializes in winning aerial duels. He’s been very good in the league for two years now, and earned a Finland call-up about a year ago. Honka head honcho Hexi Arteva has already felt it necessary to comment on – to my knowledge non-existent – speculation on Ivanov’s future. To me it feels like he’s trying to coax a bid, but what do I know. If he goes, they already signed Tapio Heikkilä who could be considered a ready-made replacement.

Full backs

If you’re looking for the best overall left back in Finland, you should sign Luis Carlos Murillo – only, you’re already three months late, because he signed for HJK after the end of the season. That’s too bad! You could probably still get him, but he’d cost you a pretty penny, and within the scope of this blog post, we aren’t interested in paying pretty pennies.

The thing is, though, there’s a guy who has been only slightly worse – better in an attacking sense, but not quite as solid defensively – in the same time period who seems to have gone somewhat unnoticed – Dylan Murnane of IFK Mariehamn. If you’re looking for a left back, he’s your guy.

If your problem is the right side of defence, Finland is somewhat more barren, due to a league wide penchant for preferring bumbling center half types in that position. I mean, if that’s what you’re looking for, maybe try Kalle Taimi – he is a Finland international, after all?

Otherwise, Felipe Aspegren has been maturing nicely, and had his best season by far in 2019. He’s more of a midfielder type, so can play a variety of roles to a sufficient standard. I don’t imagine he’s far from a national team call up, especially considering the other options.

Another alternative might be Nikolai Alho, who has reimagined himself as an attacking full back after a career as a winger. It fits him nicely, and he did well there last season, even if his team faltered. Rumors have placed him in League One this month, so it doesn’t seem like such a long shot.

Central midfields

Rasmus Schüller signed for HJK last week, and immediately became the highest profile midfielder in the league. Among players who played last season, the pick of the bunch is maybe Jair Tavares da Silva. He’s been in Finland for a while and has played with varied success in the second tier. Upon his promotion to the top tier, he turned in a very good season of midfield work, showing a range of skills.

If not Jair, another option could be KuPS’ Issa Thiaw. He only played just under 800 minutes last season due to an injury, but in the previous season he put up an impressive mix of defensive numbers, combined with a propensity to get into the opposite box – a trend that continued in 2019. If only there was a term to describe that type of player!

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The long shot – and the length of the shot seems to be increasing by the season – would maybe be Moshtagh Yaghoubi. I’m not the biggest fan of Yaghoubi – I think he slows the game down too much – but he undeniably is a talented player. He’s also something of a stat player – in that his playing style is so busy that he sticks in a lot of the statistical categories, even if the numbers don’t necessarily translate to his team doing better. His personality could be described as a little… complicated, and he has fallen out with a lot of his previous teams. That being said, he can play, and if that’s what you focus on, and if you believe you can handle difficult personalities, he might be the guy for you. He just joined HIFK this offseason, so he’d cost money.

Attackers

There are basically two stand out guys in this category who don’t strictly qualify due to not playing in Finland anymore. Filip Valencic played for Inter last season on loan from Stabaek. He’s been really good every season he’s played in Finland, and Stabaek don’t seem to rate him. I think he could be a star for them, or a similarly rated team, but I’m not sure he has a future there.

The other player is Ishmael Yartey, who played half a season of dominant football for relegated KPV in 2019. He’s a free agent, so knock yourselves out.

The other stand out players are KuPS icon Petteri Pennanen and HIFK’s dynamic Carlos Erikson. Pennanen is a wide playmaker type, who has been one of the best players in the league for some time. He’s been abroad in two stints without sticking, so there are some question marks there, but he seems to be a free agent – or at least free-ish, as he’s attracted interest from the Indonesian league for what that’s worth – so he could be a potential value bet.

If Petteri Pennanen isn’t to your taste, maybe Mika Ojala is? He had a good season for Inter in 2019 after some struggles and some early indications that his legs had gone, but didn’t do enough to earn an extension with Inter. He’s a club legend – and an all time Veikkausliiga creative great – so I struggle to place him anywhere else in Finland, even though he should definitely be good enough.

Erikson, on the other hand, is one of the most dynamic forward players in the league, a live-wire with tricks in the bag. If he can take another step forward in 2020, with HIFK overall probably having a better team, he could be one of the best players in the league.

So there you have it, a full list of players in every position who could potentially improve your team in the immediate future. None of them are flawless – they are playing in Finland after all – but all of them have upside. If you’re interested in younger players, better investments, there’s a place for that as well.

Thanks for reading, give me a follow on Twitter if you’re feeling benevolent and/or are interested in similar content!

Are Jaro on to something?

As I was researching my piece on Jani Honkavaara a while ago, I stumbled upon something interesting, something I had witnessed previously during the summer. Before my eyes were numbers that supported my notion that Jaro were pressing more intensely than any other team in either of the top two tiers of Finnish football this season. I found it interesting, because I had stumbled upon another interesting tidbit even earlier in my digging through the numbers: namely, that Jaro had played quite an impressive season, using mostly homegrown talent and a couple of Mexicans. Is something going on in Pietarsaari? Are Jaro on to something?

Lots of attacking, lots of high pressing (note that some of the statistics are ones where more is worse, like xGA – in their case the percentile ranks have been flipped, which means that for all of the statistics on the graph, more is better)

The modern version of Jaro owes quite a lot to Alexei Eremenko Sr., their coach in their previous stint in the league. A coach with a very distinct style of play, focused around valuing control of the ball over chance creation and – how to put this nicely – aggression bordering on violence, Eremenko made his Jaro into one of the most distinct teams in the league in terms of playing style at a time when possession football was still making its way up north – and relegated them in the process.

Back in 2016, I wrote one of my first blogs about their campaign ending in relegation, and how it was a pretty good example of how xG contains more information about the quality of a team than just shot numbers. Jaro in 2015 was also a very typical example of how having a very distinct style of play isn’t always equivalent to getting good results (VPS being another example).

Käcko’s Jaro, like Eremenko’s did, has a very distinct style of play, only they seem to be getting results in the process – results that can be backed up by their underlying metrics – and played some of the funnest football in the country. That they’ve done so without huge investments in playing staff is an additional bonus, as is the fact that they’ve used a lot of young players rather than Veikkausliiga cast-offs or Ykkönen veterans. Seeing as Jaro started to get results at roughly the same time that Käcko took over, while not seeing huge improvements in playing personnel indicates that a lot of the credit should be apportioned to him. Overall, heading into 2020, Jaro look like a potential candidate to fight for promotion if they can maintain the form that carried them through large portions of last season, and if they can add the right type of players to the existing bunch.

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In terms of playing style, Käcko’s Jaro seem to try to push their opponents wide when pressing up the pitch, hence using the sideline to squeeze space. This allows them to win the ball back in their opponents’ half, giving them the opportunity to spring quick counters whenever possible. This is in stark contrast to Eremenko’s Jaro, who were more comfortable sitting deeper, challenging their opponents in their own defensive third rather than further forward.

When comparing their passing tendencies to their opponents’ this effect becomes further emphasized, as they have overrepresented pass clusters in the same areas in which they tend to win the ball back (essentially, meaning that they play more of these types of passes compared to other teams). Otherwise, their passing tendencies lean towards not playing it short in their own half, especially not centrally, as well as playing long cross field balls from right to left, mostly from center back Johan Brunell to left back Darvin Chavez or wingers Walter Moore or Anthony Olusanya.

Compare this to 2015, when Jaro had a bunch of underrepresented pass clusters in the attacking zones, while their overrepresented pass clusters were short passes in their own half (plus the same diagonal from right to left).

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Now, the nature of Ykkönen means that any success achieved last season can easily end up having very little bearing on this season, as player churn tends to be a factor. Consider, for example, Jahir Barraza, who played an impressive season on loan from Atlas in the Mexican league. His loan spell ended at the end of the season, and although Jaro would likely be interested in acquiring him for 2020 as well, it’s going to be dependent on his desire to return to the Finnish second tier for a second season. Replacing his production will be as difficult as it is imperative if Jaro are going to have any say in the fight for promotion back to the Veikkausliiga.

Essentially, losing Barraza and not finding a competent replacement could be the difference between one of the top places and mid-table mediocrity. The silver lining is that Käcko had Jaro playing well with a moderate player staff already last season, and that they have an intriguing potential replacement in local boy Anthony Olusanya (even though I’m unsure he’d be ready to step up to produce at the level of Barraza next season).

With little budget and few options, who could be alternatives at striker for Jaro, then? AC Oulu fans are trying to crowdfund the signing of Niklas Jokelainen, and that could be something worth trying to intercept if there’s any chance of doing so. He has previous as a similarly active shooter at Ykkönen level, and is a dynamic forward with a wide skill set who could thrive being the main man behind the likes of Olusanya, Severi Kähkönen and Axel Vidjeskog. Another alternative could be to try to get Akseli Ollila, if he doesn’t attract interest from the Veikkausliiga, to switch Olusanya to center forward permanently – although that also seems a little unlikely. In any case, Jaro are looking a good bet to be one of the Ykkönen teams to follow next season.

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2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – Final update

Another season is behind us, and so another edition of the Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking comes to its end. Last season saw a flurry of moves abroad, whereas this season has seen far less action. Looking back to last year’s list, I think I did a fairly good job at ranking prospects. Of the top 10 only Eetu Vertainen really lost a bit of stock in 2019, the rest either moved abroad, graduated due to age, or stayed roughly in place. The further down the list we go, the more speculative it becomes, and the less specific the rankings become. Is there any particular reason to rank one player at 36 compared to 37? Not really, you could just as well flip them. So the list should be considered less a definitive statement regarding a particular player, and more an indication of the rough tier he belongs to at this particular moment in time.

Since the last list, a couple of things have happened that impact this list more or less. Firstly, SJK decided to use their option to buy Jude Arthur, after an impressive maiden season. I’ve used him as an example of players I’m not including in the span of this exercise all season, but now I don’t really see a reason to exclude him anymore. Secondly, Tariq Kazi moved to Bashundhara Kings of the Bangladeshi league. Last season he made his breakthrough at Ilves but couldn’t retain his place in 2019, and only ended up playing a handful of minutes.

A reminder that the I’m only covering players owned by a team in Finland, so notable prospects like Kaan Kairinen, and so forth are disregarded. I’m also only interested in players younger than 23, and since age is tricky since it changes all the time, I’m going to use age seasons instead (that is, if you’re born in 2000, your age season in 2019 is 19). A reminder that I’m heavily favouring minutes played over most other statistics, as I think that it is what’s most important for young players. I’m also weighing minutes at the top tier higher than minutes at Ykkönen level, because of course I am.

Graduates:

Lassi Lappalainen – Bologna (Montreal Impact)

The list:

Rank (previous)	Name	Age	Team	Minutes	Primary Position
1 (1)	Lucas Lingman	21	RoPS	2382	MC
So, in the end, Lingman got to stamp his return ticket to Helsinki. He’s largely been carrying RoPS for a couple of seasons, and will hope to keep going on his return to the capital. He will supply HJK with something they have been sorely lacking: creativity from midfield. In theory, a midfield containing Parra, Väänänen and Lingman seems like a nice blend of industry and creativity, whether that is the setup that will end up being used is a different question. Has been the number one prospect in the league for a full season, and is still young enough to be around next year as well.
2 (2)	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	22	Ilves	2155	AMC/CF
Man, does it feel like I’ve been saying the exact same thing about Ala-Myllymäki all season. I like him as a player, but a lot of his strong sides are distorted by the fact that he’s scored a bunch of penalties and a couple of free kicks. I still think he’s more of a midfielder, and I think Ilves would’ve benefitted from playing him deeper, and using Naatan Skyttä in his place from a much earlier date. That being said, he took the most shots per 90 in the top two tiers this season, it’s just that a lot of those efforts were speculative. He has a good shot, and his highlight reel will make it seem worthwhile, but there’s an even better player in there, if used properly.
3 (3)	Ilmari Niskanen	22	KuPS	2394	RW
Ilmari Niskanen is a fun player in many ways. He made the bench of the first team in 2013, made his debut in 2014, established himself as a first-teamer in 2015 and has been an above-average-to-good Veikkausliiga winger since 2016. He broke out properly in 2018 and, even if he maybe has stagnated a bit in 2019, he graduates from this list in third place, a league winner, and a core cog in the team that won it all, at that. For the second year running, he was one of the U22s with the most minutes in the league. It’s not a bad way to go even if expectations were even higher.
4 (6)	Santeri Väänänen	17	HJK	656	MC
There’s a decent chance Väänänen will be a first choice midfielder for HJK next season, and if he isn’t, he seriously should consider going on loan somewhere where he would be. Like Skyttä, he’s a young player who has a genuine chance of making his team better right now. Plays with a lot of personality, even if the skill set is wide enough at this stage that his future role is still a bit unclear.
5 (26)	Naatan Skyttä	17	Ilves	555	AMC
Skyttä is probably my favorite prospect in Finnish football at the moment, and he’d probably be number one or two if he’d played two times the minutes he ended up playing. There are a lot of young players on this list where I’m not really sure what their strengths and weaknesses are, mainly due to young players often struggling to stamp their authority on the game and ending up looking a little lost – that has never been the case with Skyttä. He is a player who inevitably is at the center of what his team wants to do, always looking to receive the ball between the defensive lines, and constantly betting on himself to be able to do something with the ball once he gets it. The thing is, I’m pretty sure Ilves would have benefited from it as well, because in the brief time he played, he was 5th in the league in key passes per 90 while completing the third most dribbles per 90. It doesn’t mean he’d have kept up the pace – which is why I’m being conservative in his placement – and his xA per 90 was only closer to 20th best in the league (still pretty good for a teenager!). Either way, he’s still way ahead even in playing time compared to his peers (17 year olds play on average 224 minutes per season in either of the top two tiers).
6 (N/A)	Jude Arthur	20	SJK	1510	MC
Hey Jude! The Veikkausliiga tackles leader makes an appearance at the death. SJK decided to pull the trigger on Arthur’s option, and so here he is. I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen, and if the trajectory stays the same, he’ll potentially make them their money back, maybe even with a tidy profit. He’s an effective shield in front of the defense, who gets involved defensively, is good in the air and is a tidy passer. Will play an important part for next year’s new look SJK.
7 (5)	Salomo Ojala	22	Haka	2160	FW
Questions persist about Salomo Ojala’s true talent level, and whether he can pick up in the Veikkausliiga where he left off in the second tier. He’s an intriguing mix of different qualities, and has mostly been deployed as a second striker, with responsibilities beyond poaching goals. He might suffer slightly from the higher tempo a level up, but he’ll hopefully have time to settle down under familiar management so even only a median projection would seemingly be that he’s one of the top young(ish) goalscorers in the league next year. He won’t appear on this list due to his age, but he’ll be fondly remembered nonetheless.
8 (7)	Juho Hyvärinen	19	RoPS	2358	RB
I try to be careful when rating young players who play for teams whose hands are forced when it comes to playing them. RoPS in 2019 was on the margins of this category, handing out a lot of responsibility to players who were very much learning on the job. That being said, Juho Hyvärinen played more minutes in 2019 than almost any other player. He had his ups and downs like any teenager will, but he essentially played all of the minutes he was available for, which is something that few players can say. Will need to move to a team with higher aspirations before long, though, because if he can’t show off his contribution in attack, he’ll run the risk of becoming just another Veikkausliiga right back.
9 (4)	Jasin-Amin Assehnoun	21	Lahti	1941	LW/LWB
Assehnoun is a difficult one to judge because he essentially split his playing time between left wing and left wing back. In both cases, his strength is largely the same – genuine 1-v-1 ability – but his opportunity to use it and the circumstances around him varied depending on the system. He’s one of the strongest dribblers in the league – 5th overall in successful dribbles per 90 – and that usually tends to lead to good things, so hopes are high.
10 (13)	Luis Henrique	21	HIFK	1287	CF
Luis Henrique joined HIFK late, but made an instant impression. His tenacity reminds me of Alfredo Morelos a little bit, even if the offensive output (beyond goals [0.54 NPG per 90] and assists [0.46 per 90]) doesn’t quite match the Colombian’s. If he stays another season with HIFK, I have a feeling his development might be key to determining where they are going to sit in the table.
11 (14)	Tommi Jyry	20	KuPS	1457	MC
That’s two titles in two years for Tommi Jyry, who made the bold decision last season to move from a HIFK where he had established himself as a first-teamer to a title-chasing KuPS, already blessed with options for his position. The move payed off in many ways, as Jyry fought his way into the starting eleven in Kuopio as well. He’s an energetic midfielder who is more of a neat passer than a creative force. He played the Ville Saxman role decently for KuPS, and I think that his type of combination of defensive work rate and desire to get into the box to finish chances is something that Jyry could develop into with time. His only goal this season is a good example of this exact thing, as he lunged onto a low cross inside the goalkeeper’s area to bundle it home.
12 (8)	Kalle Katz	19	RoPS (HJK)	1511	CB
After Toni Koskela left RoPS, Katz’s playing time sort of dried up a little bit. His season was nothing special, so it’s understandable that he’d be dropped in the midst of a relegation battle – or maybe there was an injury that I couldn’t find information about online? Either way, his contract with HJK is up and his form at RoPS is probably going to at least partly determine whether he’ll get an extension with HJK or not. I would suggest a move abroad at this point, but in all honesty I think he would have had to have leaned more heavily onto his strengths – passing and dribbling – in 2019 for that to be relevant at this stage. HJK in 2019 could be good for him, but with the catastrophal way the season ended, I wonder if they’ll dare trust youth in 2020. This slideshow requires JavaScript.
13 (18)	Enoch Banza	19	KPV (HJK)	1673	LW/RW
Another HJK loanee, Banza rises in the ranks because he seemed to show genuine development toward the end of the season. Maybe it was the addition of Ishmael Yartey that pushed him to produce better, maybe due to being played solely on the left wing, from where he had a more natural avenue into the box. His shotmap shows that he gets a fair amount of centrally located shots, despite being a winger, which is an intriguing development well worth following. He ends the season with a decent tally of goal contribution and the hope that he’ll get a chance to do better next season for HJK.
14 (10)	Severi Kähkönen	19	Jaro	1337	AMC
In terms of overall performance, Kähkönen has probably been just about as good as anyone on this list. According to InStat’s player positions, he has mostly played in central midfield somewhere, but I think he should probably be considered more of an attacking midfielder. This matters, because compared to other central midfielders, his shot, goal and xG contribution is off the charts good, whereas compared to attacking midfielders it’s just really, really good. Either way, you’d like to see him play at a higher level pretty soon, because this season has showed that the Ykkönen has very little left to teach him.
15 (9)	Akseli Ollila	19	EIF	2108	LW
Ollila has been developing at a steady pace since moving to EIF last season and at this point he is one of the standout attackers in the division. He scores a lot of penalties, which adds to his goal tally, but a total of 6 non-penalty goals and 3 assists off around 5 xG and 5 xA is a very decent total for a winger. Looking at his shotmap, you’ll notice that he rarely missed from close to goal this season – is that an indication of xG overperformance or good finishing? Another player who should be looking to play at a higher level next season, who shouldn’t have trouble finding takers. This slideshow requires JavaScript.
16 (17)	Eetu Vertainen	20	HJK	1484	CF
After the title chances dried up for HJK, Vertainen was given a chance to lead the line and did so in much the same way as he had done previously – pretty well, showing a decent array of ability while still seeming like there’s something missing if he wants to make it at HJK. At his best, he’s a live-wire. He’s physical yet light-footed, can dribble, can shoot, can pass – just needs to get his head straight and next season will be far better for him, as long as HJK contributes with sufficient playing time. Looking at his shotmap, you see a player who should have scored closer to his xG of around 5, rather than just the 2 NPG he ended up getting.
17 (16)	Eemeli Virta	19	Lahti	1920	MC
A nice season alltogether for Virta, and one in which he established himself as a tidy passes, and competent defensive midfielder. He scores in the 75th percentile for tackles, the 85th percentile for interceptions and almost 90th percentile for aerial win percentage among midfielders, which seems intriguing. If he can continue on the same path next season, he’ll potentially carve something of a niche for him, which is of interest.
18 (12)	Yussif Moussa	21	Ilves	1516	MC/AMC
Moussa provides lots of shots, lots of dribbles and lots of tackles from midfield, which is an interesting profile. A lot of the shots are speculative, though, so with some tactical honing Ilves could have a gem on their hands.
19 (11)	Anthony Olusanya	19	Jaro	1327	LW/CF
Olusanya started the season in great form but dropped off a bit as the season progressed. His final playing position is still something of a question mark. Unlike Kähkönen, he doesn’t stand out while watching him play, but he has the numbers to make you intrigued.
20 (15)	Aapo Mäenpää	21	IFK Mariehamn	1877	RB
IFK Mariehamn’s season should be considered a success based on pre-season expectations, and Mäenpää has been an important cog in their machinery for three seasons now. He’s a defensively solid right back – maybe the least sexy player profile I can think of – which means two things: the senior national team is probably not too many steps away, and his ceiling is probably fairly moderate. His contract is up according to transfermarkt, so we’ll see where he ends up next season.
21 (27)	Elias Mastokangas	18	Inter	388	AMC
It’s hard to blame Inter for not playing Mastokangas more – would he have taken the place of Mika Ojala, Filip Valencic or Timo Furuholm? – and you would have forgiven them for playing Albion Ademi ahead of him also. He ended up ahead of Ademi in the pecking order, which is to his credit, and he showed a lot of promise while on the pitch. Needs to play more – a lot more – next season, so should probably consider an inter-league loan if that playing time isn’t to be found in Turku. Maybe a controversial cross-town switch?
22 (N/A)	Arlind Sejdiu	18	Honka	375	LW
I had my eyes on Sejdiu already heading into the season, and I’m disappointed that he only managed to play as little as he did. I am, however, a bit surprised by how well he performed while on the pitch. 0.48 Non-Penalty Goals per 90 and 0.24 Assists pre 90 is a good, if slightly lucky, start. But 0.31 xG per 90 from out wide is something that any team would take any time. My fear is that Honka will persist with their policy to only play players over 25, and if so, I hope Sejdiu will look to go on loan somewhere, because he looks an intriguing prospect.
23 (21)	Jeremiah Streng	18	SJK	973	CF
My hope is that Streng will be the key beneficiary of Jani Honkavaara taking over at SJK, as a centre forward fitting the general characteristics of what he seems to want for that position. This season was a win just for the amount of playing time he managed to accumulate, but looking at the way Naatan Skyttä or Santeri Väänänen managed to provide key contributions for their teams, you have to look at it a bit more cautiously.
24 (22)	Pyry Lampinen	17	Lahti	537	CF
It’s hard to keep up the pace when you score with your first two shots in the league. Lampinen cooled off understandably, but was also shunted to the right wing as it became clear he wasn’t going to score with his every touch. Adds to the interesting generation of young strikers knocking on doors at various clubs – some of whom would deserve to be on this list had they appeared enough in the league.
25 (23)	Matias Tamminen	18	RoPS	813	CF
2019 will go down as a success for Matias Tamminen, if only for getting a fair enough of playing time and scoring a couple of league goals. While RoPS has been a good environment for player development for a fairly long time now, that might not have been as true for their center forwards. Tamminen seems like a player who needs more service in the box – almost all of his shots this season were from inside the box, and all of them were from close to the goal line – rather than attacks built through deliberate build up. Hopefully there will be more mass in 2020, because the quality of chances is there.
26 (20)	Axel Vidjeskog	18	Jaro	1063	AM
Last season, it felt like there was something of a dearth of promising teenagers playing actively in either of the top two tiers. This season, I’m placing Axel Vidjeskog in 26th and feeling a bit bad about because he could just as well be higher. Jaro have a fun team, and Vidjeskog is a part of it. He lacks the polish of Severi Kähkönen and the raw end product of Anthony Olusanya, but he’s a year younger. Next year will be illustrative.
27 (19)	Anttoni Huttunen	18	MyPa	1535	LW
Huttunen was unfortunately injured approaching the end of the season, and in his absence MyPa managed to squeeze out another season in the second tier. Huttunen showed flashes of brilliance during his time on the pitch and ended up with similar xA numbers to Petteri Pennanen or Lucas Kaufman one level above. With players like him, I tend to hope that the progression is quick: I’d rather see him play for a better team, in a better league, with better teammates as soon as possible, and I remember reading somewhere that he had been training with HIFK during the season – that could be potentially be a good next step.
28 (35)	Kevin Larsson	18	HIFK	672	RW
This slideshow requires JavaScript. Larsson came into the HIFK side in 2019 after joining from renowned talent factory KäPa and ended up playing more than I expected. It’s hard to pin down his profile at this point in time, but the playing time suggests that the coaching staff has faith in his ability. In many ways he resembles Joel Mattsson in that he was played a lot for his age while the statistics struggle to pick up what he’s good at. Will hopefully take another step forward next season.
29 (25)	Daniel Rantanen	21	EIF	1929	MC
Rantanen has floated around the top two tiers for a couple of years now, and although not much has changed – he’s still one of the most active shooters from central midfield – this season feels like a breakthrough of sorts, even if it’s only at Ykkönen level. In previous seasons, though, it’s been all volume and very little end product to show for it. This season, he has been a genuine attacking force for EIF – even if his shotmap is littered with hit-and-hopes. Although the range of his passing (and to an extent his shooting) is a key strength of his, he is also capable of carrying the ball forward from midfield, which can be a valuable asset. Looking at his key passes, a notable trend is the long diagonal looking for Akseli Ollila, which was a prominent weapon for EIF in 2019. So what does the future hold? His contract is up, and a forward thinking Veikkausliiga team in need of an offensive midfielder might find the thought enticing. This slideshow requires JavaScript.
30 (24)	Teemu Jäntti	19	Lahti	980	MC
As I’ve written before, I kind of like the hypothetical balance of attributes that a Jäntti-Virta central midfield partnership would consist of. Jäntti is more of an energetic box-to-box shuttler type while Virta is more of a sitting midfielder who can distribute from the base. With Assehnoun on the left and Zeqiri on the right and a young new coach… are Lahti starting to look like a pretty interesting team to follow in 2020?
31 (N/A)	Joel Mattsson	20	HIFK	2018	AM
Last time around, I dropped Mattsson due to not quite being able to figure out what kind of player he is. I’ve done it before, for roughly similar reasons. The thing is, though, that he’s played a lot this season, which means that two coaches has considered him promising enough to give him the time of day, and that makes me feel like there’s something I’m missing. I can’t figure out what it is, but there must be something? His form did pick up toward the end of the season, and now his contract is up, so next season will be illustrative.
32 (37)	Joonas Sundman	21	SJK	1353	LB
Sundman is a constant in the U21 national team, and has established himself as a key part of an SJK defense in constant flux. Wins a lot of headers and doesn’t contribute a lot in attack, which isn’t the most enticing profile it must be admitted.
33 (44)	Tiemoko Fofana	20	Ilves	1606	CF
I don’t dislike Tiemoko Fofana – there’s much to like about his game: his versatility, his movement in the box, his hold up ability – it’s just that the statistics aren’t exactly flattering. The fact remains that with the playing time he got, for Ilves to win the title, he would’ve had to accumulate more xG, more goals, more shots.
34 (28)	Evans Mensah	21	HJK	1434	RW
Will HJK decline their club option for Evans Mensah? For some reason, even if he has been really good at times, it still doesn’t feel like there’s a consistent place for him at HJK. He has the individual ability to be dominant, and he has been a consistent goalscorer from the wing, but other options still seem to preferred to him whenever possible. An enigma.
35 (29)	Niklas Jokelainen	19	RoPS	787	CF
Jokelainen’s playing time dried up toward the end of the season, but what came before that seemed promising enough. If I’d have to think of a non-obvious candidate to do a Rasmus Karjalainen, he’d be pretty far up on the list.
36 (30)	Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan	20	RoPS (HJK)	839	LW
Kouassivi-Benissan’s loan to RoPS was a good idea that came a little too late. It would probably have been better for both player and receiving team if he could have spent a full season there. I still think he’s more of a winger, or a wing back in a system where he would be allowed to attack more and worry less about his defence. Should have another year on his HJK contract, and should have a better chance of breaking through under Koskela.
37 (32)	Mehdi El-Moutacim	19	EIF	2469	GK
The problem with being a young goalkeeper is that it’s the one position on the pitch where experience is considered the most important, and all of the league minutes are basically divided between 12 players. El-Moutacim doesn’t play in the league but he has accumulated a lot of Ykkönen minutes already for a player his age and has done reasonably well. He plays with a lot of confidence, which is something that is exceptionally good for a goalkepeer, but which can lead to some problematic issues in his day-to-day work, mostly in his passing. His largest medium term problem is that he’s going to start to get minutes at a higher level soon, and for that to happen he’s going to have to convince a team that he’s good enough to be a number one, get promoted with EIF, or move abroad. It’s a rocky road either way with no clear best case solution.
38 (33)	Mauro Severino	20	TPV	758	RW
Severino is a productive attacker, probably even at Veikkausliiga level. Getting relegated from Ykkönen isn’t exactly great for his reputation – nor is changing teams three times before you turn 20 – but an opportunistic side should definitely look to pounce.
39 (N/A)	Tuukka Kurki	20	KTP	943	FW
The answer to who was 11th in xG per 90 for both leagues this season. Kurki looked excellent in flashes for HIFK last season and only started to get into the KTP team once Kalle Multanen moved to Italy. I like him, and I hope to see more of him next season.
40 (N/A)	John Fagerström	21	EIF	1119	FW
The answer to who was 10th in xG per 90 for both leagues this season. He looked a good fit for EIF as a lone front man, with good hold up play and a poacher’s instinct after struggling for Haka in 2018 as a winger. I like the profile, but does he have another level in him?
41 (31)	Martti Haukioja	19	VPS	1408	LB
Haukioja has an… interesting profile for a full back, in that he scores fairly profile in most defensive categories but played a tonne of passes into the box and added a good amount of xA. Is that a good recipe for a team that got relegated? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a player of his pedigree would be picked up by a Veikkausliiga team before the season starts.
42 (34)	Omar Jama	21	EIF	2155	MC
Jama is a neat player – he can carry the ball forward, and pass it at a good rate, but he has some defensive limitations and offers marginal creativity. He’s pretty young though, and has played quite a lot, but time is running out for him to realize his potential.
43 (40)	Maximo Tolonen	18	SJK	570	AMC
Jani Honkavaara has a decent reputation as a developer of players, and Tolonen will be hopeful that some of that magic will rub off on him. At times this season, he’d be SJK’s most progressive, positive player, then he’d get subbed early for some reason. At times, I get doubtful about his ability, but then I look up his stats from Ykkönen in his age 16 season, and I’m reminded of what a precocious talent we’re talking about. He has suffered from the turbulence at SJK more than probably anyone and might be the one player to benefit most if they can find some stability.
44 (36)	Ville Tikkanen	20	SJK	581	CB
Something of a lost season for Tikkanen, although he did manage to get back on the pitch toward the end. If history is to be believed, he’ll have enough defending to do under Honkavaara, so at least he’ll get a chance to show what he’s got.
45 (46)	Joonas Lakkamäki	17	MuSa	1298	RB
An impressive enough debut season for Lakkamäki. He scored in the 90th percentile for interceptions while dribbling a fair bit and tackling more than average for a fullback.
46 (33)	Tuomas Ollila	19	KTP	1588	LB
Ollila will always struggle because of his size; there will always be a big enough reason why his defence doesn’t match up, that practically all that he does in attack will feel insufficient. He is a good attacking fullback/wingback, though, he just needs a team that doesn’t care as much about his weakness in the air.
47 (49)	Rony Huhtala	21	MyPa	1672	CF
I like Huhtala, that much should be clear, and he saw a serious upturn in form toward the end of the season (which was largely fuelled by penalty goals, it must be said [even if he won a large amount of the penalties himself]). Stats like Kurki and Fagerström more, but the three of them should interest teams in the league looking to add depth to their attacks.
48 (43)	Momodou Sarr	19	VPS	1857	CF/RW
Sarr ticks a fair few boxes, to be honest: he is very selective with his shooting, he is young, he’s played a lot. It’s just that he took under one shot per 90 in 2019, and didn’t exactly look convincing as VPS floundered. Playing a season at Ykkönen level might be just what he needs.
49 (47)	Teppo Marttinen	22	KPV	2184	GK
Marttinen ended up relegated after a full season as KPV’s number one. He hasn’t always looked convincing, but he’s only 22 and few goalkeepers do at that age. With KPV signing Miika Töyräs, it’s fair to say that Marttinen might be on the lookout for another contract at Veikkausliiga level, although taking the Carljohan Eriksson route abroad could be a good alternative if the opportunity arises.
50 (42)	Johannes Kytilä	19	MyPa	2419	CB
Apart from Katz and Valtteri Vesiaho, Kytilä was one of last season’s Klubi 04’s most played center halves. He played a dramatic part in securing another season of Ykkönen football for MyPa and has essentially played all of the available minutes this season. Look at that majestic little dot!

Players listed previously in 2019: Mikko Kuningas, Diogo Tomas, Simon Lindholm, Tuukka Andberg, Joakim Latonen, Sampo Ala, Niilo Mäenpää, Tommi Jäntti, Alexander Jibrin, Paavo Voutilainen, Jonas Häkkinen, Anton Eerola, Antti Ulmanen, Matias Lahti, Juhani Pikkarainen, Samu Alanko, Nuutti Laaksonen, Nikolas Saira.

Thanks for reading the series in 2019, I’ll be back with another edition next season. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter for more Finnish football content!

2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – September update

A couple of weeks after the transfer window slammed shut, it’s time to, once again, take stock of the prospect situation in the top two tiers of Finnish football. If this is your first time here, I’ve already posted two lists this season (July and August), and with the season wrapping up in early October, I suppose we can call this the penultimate list of the season.

In terms of outgoing prospects the transfer window was slow compared to previous years – the last remaining blue chipper was moved in a significant deal, but nothing else of note happened except for FC Nordsjaelland snapping up a couple of promising teenagers who were probably a couple of seasons away from debuting in Finland but will probably now go straight into the Danish club’s first team setup (I kid, but not really). There was some whispers surrounding Lauri Ala-Myllymäki and Lucas Lingman, but never really anything that amounted to more than speculation. Winter will be busier, with contracts ending and teams rebuilding from the top up, so interesting times ahead!

A reminder that the I’m only covering players owned by a team in Finland, so notable prospects like Kaan Kairinen, Jude Arthur and so forth are disregarded. I’m also only interested in players younger than 23, and since age is tricky since it changes all the time, I’m going to use age seasons instead (that is, if you’re born in 2000, your age season in 2019 is 19). A reminder that I’m heavily favouring minutes played over most other statistics, as I think that it is what’s most important for young players. I’m also weighing minutes at the top tier higher than minutes at Ykkönen level, because of course I am.

2019 Graduates:

Lassi Lappalainen, Bologna

The list:

Rank (previous)	Name	Age	Team	Minutes	Primary Position
1 (1)	Lucas Lingman	21	RoPS	1986	MC
Lingman has proven himself as a good, creative passer, who is equally as capable at carrying the ball up the field as he is at passing it. He has been one of the most consistent players for a team that has gone through a lot of changes in the past two years, and he has established himself as a starter for the U21 national team in the process. With one more season left on his contract, I wonder if HJK would be interested enough to A) pay up, and B) swallow their pride.
2 (2)	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	22	Ilves	1874	AMC/CF
I’ve been harping on about Ala-Myllymäki’s xG overperformance, and how his goal amount is bloated from a bunch of penalties – these things remain true (although, his non-penalty goals are regressing towards his xG). He does a lot of other things well, and I think it’s likely that he’ll become a full international as soon as the national team play a friendly, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll attract interest from abroad.
3 (12)	Ilmari Niskanen	22	KuPS	1935	RW
Last month Niskanen was pumpkining a bit, which led me to prepare something of a descent in the rankings, then he woke up and started both scoring and assisting like last season. 4 goals and 6 assists at this point of the season is a surprisingly good total, and his upturn in form has been critical for a KuPS side starting to look like potential league winners. I think he belongs to the top tier of prospects, but that’s mostly because the top tier no longer contains any slam dunk prospects like it did only a year-or-so ago. He remains a deadly threat from out wide, but the Nikolai Alho comp won’t go away.
4 (3)	Jasin-Amin Assehnoun	21	Lahti	1558	LW
Is Assehnoun a winger or a wing back? It doesn’t really matter, I don’t think, as he excels both in attack and in defence. In searching for comps, a young Santeri Hostikka with better defending came up as an intriguing comp, with Eero Tamminen being a less glamorous alternative.
5 (7)	Salomo Ojala	22	Haka	1688	CF
I’m still not convinced about the upside, but it’s impossible to dismiss the kind of dominance he’s displaying. I don’t think it’s an impossibility that he’ll get a national team call-up in one of the traditional January friendlies, which would be an opportunity for him to show his ability against tougher opposition.
6 (21)	Santeri Väänänen	17	HJK	562	MC
I’ve been skirting around it for a while, and so I’ve arrived at this: I think Väänänen is probably the best young player playing regularly at this level, depending on your definition of young. If I had to choose between Väänänen and almost any other player, I’d go with Väänänen, except if I wanted to win in the immediate future, in which case I’d go with someone like Lingman instead. I don’t see it as an impossibility that he’ll get picked up in the January window, though, which also adds to the helium.
7 (4)	Juho Hyvärinen	19	RoPS	2017	RB
Unless he gets injured, Hyvärinen will likely end the season as the U22 outfielder with the most minutes played in the top two tiers of Finnish football. He seemingly has another year left on his contract, so next season will be crucial in determining how far he’ll go in his career.
8 (5)	Kalle Katz	19	RoPS (HJK)	1419	CB
Last season, Katz showed his ability to carry the ball upfield, logging one of the highest dribbling seasons for a centre half since 2013. This season, his dribbling has been restricted, which is something I think is a bad thing, because he is going to need it if he’s going to keep playing centre half – mainly because his aerial ability is going to present a potential weakness that will have to be countered with a strength in some other facet of his game. If he can hone his on the ball ability, he has the potential to become a really interesting player, if not, he’ll probably have to grow a couple of centimeters.
9 (9)	Akseli Ollila	19	EIF	1664	LW
Ollila was good last season, and has shown ample development this year – although his end product is better, what’s more impressive are the overall improvements in his game. He’s essentially EIF’s primary attacking weapon, which is pretty big for a 19-year old.
10 (8)	Severi Kähkönen	19	Jaro	1154	AMC
Kähkönen’s numbers look especially gaudy because he (according to InStat) has played in centre midfield more than he has further forward, which means that he is being compared to midfielders rather than attacking midfielders/wingers in my setup. Either way, he’s doing a lot in attack, in a variety of ways, which is encouraging. For his sake, I fear he’ll play at Ykkönen level again next year, which will obviously be Jaro’s gain.
11 (10)	Anthony Olusanya	19	Jaro	1141	LW/CF
Olusanya has played an intriguing season for a Jaro team in ascent and has shown impressive growth compared to last season. Whether he’s a centre forward or a left winger will be one of the questions that will impact his career. At this point, I like Ollila more because his game seems more rounded, but I think both will have an opportunity to play on a bigger stage than currently.
12 (14)	Yussif Moussa	21	Ilves	1197	MC/AMC
Moussa does most of his work in the opposition half, where he can be a threat with his shooting and dribbling. For a player with such an attacking profile, he does a lot of tackling, which is makes the package pretty interesting.
13 (N/A)	Luis Henrique	21	HIFK	786	CF
Henrique joined HIFK fairly late, but has been a very positive addition to the new look Helsinki side, having an immediate impact by scoring or assisting at a pace of roughly once a game. Statistically, he profiles as 2016 Mikael Forssell – as a striker who gets few shots, but from good areas, with good creative numbers – which is high praise indeed. The numbers don’t yet include this weekends’ game, so with two more goals in his back pocket, the comp might get even more flattering.
14 (13)	Tommi Jyry	20	KuPS	1052	MC
Jyry profiles as a good ball shuttler, who is capable of progressing the ball either through carrying or passing it. He has some end product, but has the potential to get more and the same can be said for his defending.
15 (11)	Aapo Mäenpää	21	IFK Mariehamn	1382	RB
After a rough 2018, Mäenpää has returned strongly. He is an active defender, who is very capable in the air, and is decent enough on the ball. Kalle Taimi as a comp seems fair, and with age on his side, there’s potential for more.
16 (6)	Eemeli Virta	19	Lahti	1548	MC
At the start of the season, I would have predicted Lahti to be one of the teams to struggle this season. They haven’t been great, but they haven’t really been involved in the relegation scrap all season, which should be considered a fairly successful all round performance. Virta has been one of the players on which Lahti have leaned the hardest, and he deserves a lot of credit for the performances he has put out. He intercepts a lot, wins headers, and moves the ball around neatly. It’s all a little Aleksi Paananen, but that isn’t a terrible comp for a young player.
17 (16)	Eetu Vertainen	20	HJK	1101	CF
Vertainen finally managed to score his first goal of the season in August, with a placed finish after a bit of opportunistic penalty-box-hanging, something that doesn’t really change the trajectory of his season, but should get a load off his back. In fact, I hope it gives him more confidence to be less involved, and to stay in the box more, as that has traditionally been his weakness. Has the talent for more, and will get another chance to prove so next season, even if I think a move could be beneficial.
18 (18)	Enoch Banza	19	KPV (HJK)	1178	RW
2019 has been a success for Banza in one aspect only, unfortunately, and that is that he has been able to stay fit enough to accumulate a decent workload of minutes at the Veikkausliiga level. He hasn’t exactly performed to expectations, and I’m not sure he’ll get a chance to play for HJK next year either. That shouldn’t discourage him, as there are ample examples of players with his exact profile who have gone abroad after only a season of good form after having left HJK, but he needs to take the next opportunity before time starts to run out.
19 (20)	Anttoni Huttunen	18	MyPa	1535	LW
Huttunen is out for the season, but has shown enough that there should be clubs hovering if his contract situation would allow for a move in the offseason. Has trained with the HIFK first team this season, apparently, so that would seem like a natural potential destination.
20 (15)	Axel Vidjeskog	18	Jaro	1063	LW
Vidjeskog is younger than Kähkönen and Olusanya, has played less, and has been less impressive, I think. That isn’t to say that he hasn’t been impressive, just that he’s facing stiff competition. Statistically, he compares fairly well to a younger Lauri Ala-Myllymäki – if that’s who Vidjeskog is at 18, then I’m intrigued to see in which direction he’s going to develop.
21 (27)	Jeremiah Streng	18	SJK	696	CF
Streng has battled his way into the first team, and at the moments seems like the primary option up front for SJK. Although it hasn’t been an inevitability, competition hasn’t exactly been fierce, with Matheus Batista not impressing and Billy Ions struggling with fitness. Streng isn’t the main culprit for SJK’s struggles to score, but it is something that can’t be dismissed. That being said, he has looked good at times – he moves well in the box, and has a tendency to get on the end of crosses (which is something that young players can struggle with at first), and SJK’s conservative approach in attack does him few favors. Although it’s early to draw that comparison, one should remember that Benjamin Källman didn’t exactly impress in his first season in the Veikkausliiga before breaking out in a big way in his second. Hopefully SJK will be patient with Streng, because the upside is big.
22 (N/A)	Pyry Lampinen	17	Lahti	437	CF
Much of what I wrote about Streng could be repeated for Lampinen, except he scored with his first two shots for Lahti. He has been given a lot of responsibility in his first season in the top tier, but there are caveats involving questionable recruiting. He’s been played on the right a bit, which is something I don’t think he looks particularly suited for, but could be good for his development long term. The Källman reminder is relevant here as well.
23 (22)	Matias Tamminen	18	RoPS	630	CF
Tamminen is third in this tier of players, but the ordering could just as well be any other way. He’s getting his feet wet and has scored a couple of goals already. Seems to have more of a poacher’s instinct than Lampinen or Streng – his second goal of the season, and his performances for KTP last season are testament to this – but it’s still early so we’ll see. Lex Källman persists in his case also.
24 (19)	Teemu Jäntti	19	Lahti	831	MC
Jäntti has played a fair bit for a player his age, and he has a bunch of interesting characteristics – he’s dynamic, has a good shot and can carry the ball – but he hasn’t yet been able to put it all together. Isn’t a great passer, which adds to it, but there’s promise there if he can learn to harness it. His goal this weekend is something I think he could do more of – arriving late in the box from a counter.
25 (30)	Daniel Rantanen	21	EIF	1765	MC
I’m unsure about Rantanen, but you can’t dismiss the numbers he is putting up. He’s scoring (albeit only against MyPa) and assisting, and he has the passing range to go far, but he can look a little laborious, which makes me wonder about whether he has the legs to play at a higher level. Is very similar to Anton Popovits in playing style and ability, so could be an option for teams looking at him (or Haka, if they are unable to lock him down).
26 (N/A)	Naatan Skyttä	17	Ilves	268	AMC
I generally don’t like to add guys until they’ve played something approaching enough, and Skyttä hasn’t, but in the brief moments he has had on the pitch, he has stood out big time. His numbers are irrelevant at this point, but he simply looks like he belongs. If I’d do this list on talent alone, I’d be hard pressed to find someone to place above him. I don’t think there’s a reason not to play him for Ilves, and I think he could have contributed more than some of the alternatives, which is sad. Next year, he’ll be their best and most important player, unless someone snaps him up first.
27 (N/A)	Elias Mastokangas	18	Inter	257	AMC
Mastokangas is in almost exactly the same position as Skyttä – he’s played little, but looked really good when he’s played. The primary reason behind his low amount of playing time is less his ability and more the inherent conservatism of a title chase. I liked him a lot when he made his first appearances two years ago, and am willing to make an exception for him.
28 (25)	Evans Mensah	21	HJK	868	RW
I think it’s possible that HJK won’t exercise the option for 2020 in Mensah’s contract, which isn’t to say that he doesn’t have promise, but that he just has struggled to find any kind of consistency. He can dribble, he likes a shot, and is a generally good footballer, but has struggled in key games, and seems to perform best against the worst opponents, which isn’t optimal.
29 (23)	Niklas Jokelainen	19	RoPS	775	CF
Jokelainen hasn’t really been getting into the RoPS team lately – I wonder if it’s due to availability or whether there’s something else going on behind the scenes. Look under the hood and he’s actually been pretty good, just hasn’t scored from the chances he’s gotten. He’s better than this, but time will tell if he’ll get the chance to prove it.
30 (23)	Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan	20	RoPS (HJK)	527	LW
Of the group of young wingers on the books at HJK, I think Kouassivi-Benissan is the most likely to become a productive player for them. Efforts to make a right back out of him have been unsuccessful, and his best performances so far have been further forward on the wing. Already scored his first goal for RoPS, and will hopefully play a big part in the rest of their season. Jasin-Amin Assehnoun with 1000 less minutes seems like a tempting comp.
31 (31)	Martti Haukioja	19	VPS	1408	LB
Haukioja has been a surprisingly good attacking outlet for VPS, but his defense has left some room for improvement. Not sure he has the engine to be able to do both effectively, but if he does, he could become a good player.
32 (24)	Mehdi El-Moutacim	19	EIF	2085	GK
El-Moutacim is the U22 leader in minutes played in the top two tiers. His passing can be a bit erratic, mostly because he keeps attempting high risk-low reward passes, but I think it shows confidence and personality.
33 (42)	Mauro Severino	20	TPV	758	RW
Severino has been good on his return to TPV, and I think he’s looked good whenever I’ve seen him play. Hopefully he’ll get another chance at Veikkausliiga level.
34 (32)	Omar Jama	21	EIF	1700	MC
I’m admittedly a fan of Jama, and there are plenty of good reasons to be just that. I think he would fit a lot of the better Veikkausliiga teams quite well. At EIF he anchors their midfield, but has also been capable of chipping in with a couple of assists. His defensive output leaves something to be desired, and that might be the big holdup.
35 (34)	Kevin Larsson	18	HIFK	476	RW
Larsson hasn’t been in the side a lot lately – hopefully he’ll see some more minutes now that HIFK don’t have a lot to play for.
36 (N/A)	Ville Tikkanen	20	SJK	581	CB
Last year, there was something of a competition between Tikkanen, Katz and Valtteri Vesiaho: for two spots in the U19 Euros starting XI defence, and for the prestigious placement on this here list. Vesiaho and Tikkanen ended up playing the bulk of the U19 Euros minutes, but Katz was placed higher on the list. It’s taken Tikkanen a while to get back on the pitch for SJK, but he’s there now, and he’s been pretty good.
37 (N/A)	Joonas Sundman	21	SJK	948	LB
Sundman is like the left sided Aapo Mäenpää – good in the air, fairly solid defensively, could do with some more end product. I’m unsure about the upside, but full back is a problem position for the national team, so small improvements have the possibility to carry him surprisingly far.
38 (29)	Mikko Kuningas	22	Inter	1615	MC
Again, Kuningas is a competent Veikkausliiga player, and an important cog in a well working Inter machinery. He’s being played at wing back occasionally, and he is still a good creator for a midfielder, but I’m getting the feeling that he might be reaching his ceiling.
39 (46)	Diogo Tomas	22	Ilves	760	CB
Tomas is something of a personal favorite of mine, which is why he gets a bit of leeway. He’s great in the air, and I think he’s a very capable defender – especially one-on-one. Has been playing more recently, which is nice to see.
40 (N/A)	Maximo Tolonen	18	SJK	397	AMC
It hasn’t exactly worked out for Tolonen. He’s still young, and he’s been patiently waiting for an opportunity to break into the SJK first team, but being benched in favour of Jesse Sarajärvi can only mean one (or two) of two things: not showing enough in training and/or games or absolutely blatant nepotism. The talent is there – he’s still a key performer for the Finland U19 team – but we’re still waiting for it to materialise.
41 (33)	Tuomas Ollila	19	KTP	1588	LB
Ollila is the left sided version of Hyvärinen, in that he has some defensive deficiencies but makes up for it by being effective in attack. Has some major struggles in the air, which is troubling for a full back, and probably makes him more suitable as a wing back.
42 (35)	Johannes Kytilä	19	MyPa	1990	CB
Kytilä has the third most minutes of all outfielders at Ykkönen level this year and hasn’t always looked great to be honest. He has the size, and is competent in challenges, but can look slow and is a key part of a defence that’s just too easy to break down. Youth is a good excuse, but not for forever.
43 (36)	Momodou Sarr	19	VPS	1534	CF/RW
Sarr is having a fascinating season in that his scoring and assisting is at a fairly decent level, but everything else is less promising. In the brief moments I’ve seen him play, he hasn’t looked particularly convincing, which is why he’s a bit lower than his playing time would suggest.
44 (37)	Tiemoko Fofana	20	Ilves	1318	CF
I fear Fofana would have needed to play better for Ilves to maintain their title challenge. He doesn’t get enough action in the box, even though whenever I watch him play, it looks like he should. His creativity numbers are pretty decent, though, so maybe that’s what keeps him in the team.
45 (45)	Simon Lindholm	18	EIF	743	MC
I still struggle to place Lindholm, as I’ve yet to see him stand out in any way. A conservative placement based on playing time until this changes.
46 (50)	Joonas Lakkamäki	17	MuSa	816	RB
Little has changed from last month: Lakkamäki is a youth international full back who has been playing a fair bit so far this season. Can struggle a bit in the air, and with runs in behind, but is diligent defensively as long as the play stays in front of him.
47 (39)	Teppo Marttinen	22	KPV	1610	GK
Marttinen had a bit of a mare versus HJK this month, but he’s still the young goalkeeper with the most played minutes in the top tier. I still prefer that to sitting on the bench for a better team, or not playing at all.
48 (N/A)	Tuukka Andberg	21	HIFK	603	CB
Andberg has been around for a while. It took some time for him to get in the side this year, but he has showed some good – if inconsistent – performances and been rewarded with a call up to the U21 national team.
49 (41)	Rony Huhtala	21	MyPa	1301	CF
Huhtala is good, alright? You’re just going to have to take my word for it. Is on a hot streak, and will need to stay hot if MyPa are going to stay up.
50 (N/A)	Joakim Latonen	21	TPS	1057	LW
Latonen struggled to get into the side last year in the Veikkausliiga, and has not been an automatic started this year either. He’s an active shooter and a good creator, and I hope he’ll keep his place in the side next year.

Bubbling under:

Samuel Uusitalo – has received a fair bit of playing time for Jaro as injuries have piled up and has looked a strong defender in the brief time I’ve seen him play.

Jyri Kiuru – has started two consecutive games for SJK under Brian Page – I’m not a huge fan to be honest, but on the other hand, me being a fan hasn’t really helped Rony Huhtala either, so who knows.

Altin Zeqiri – moved to Lahti during the summer, has played a little, and has looked sharp.

Thanks for reading, the final list of the season will appear in about a month, so follow me on Twitter to get it fresh out of the oven!

2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – August update

A month ago, I relaunched my prospect Power Ranking series that I started last season. Since then, the market has been fairly quiet, more quiet than last season, even if the top player from last month’s list, Lassi Lappalainen, moved to Bologna, and then from there on loan to Impact Montreal.

With Lappalainen’s move, the ranks of top tier prospects is getting a little thin. Lucas Lingman and Lauri Ala-Myllymäki are arguably the two young players you could see making a move this month, even if neither of their teams will want to sell, and from that tier to the next, there’s quite a large gap. That’s mostly because of a couple of factors. Firstly, there have been a large amount of prospect sales in the past couple of years. It seems like Finland is slowly rehabilitating its reputation as a breeding ground for interesting footballers, which is a very good thing! Secondly, a lot of highly touted young players have failed to live up to expectations, either due to bad form, injuries or personal problems, and are therefore either not listed at all, or lower down than you would maybe have thought last year, or the year before.

Development isn’t linear, though, so a lot of the players I’m a little down on at the moment have ample time to turn it around. Albion Ademi, for example, simply hasn’t played enough this season to be considered – had he played even 500 minutes at roughly the same level as last season, he’d probably be in the top 10. It feels like guys like Eetu Vertainen and Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan are just a successful loan away from bouncing back (Kouassivi-Benissan has actually gone on loan, whereas Vertainen hasn’t). Sometimes things happen that are sub-optimal, and the way you respond to them will determine how far you go in whatever you’re doing, so I’m preaching patience.

There’s also an interesting generation of young players bubbling under – specifically attackers. Guys like Pyry Lampinen, Matias Tamminen, Sampo Ala and Jeremiah Streng are already getting starts for their respective teams. Elias Mastokangas, Arlind Sejdiu, Naatan Skyttä, Eetu Rissanen, Martin Salin, Eemeli Raittinen, Tomi Kult, Taaniel Usta are only some of the names that are starting to feel more relevant by the minute. Now it’s just up to the teams to start leaning even harder on them, to see if they bend or break.

2019 Graduates:

Lassi Lappalainen, Bologna

The list:

Rank (previous)	Name	Age	Team	Minutes	Primary Position
1 (2)	Lucas Lingman	21	RoPS	1705	MC
Lingman and Ala-Myllymäki have similar claims to the throne at the moment, and I consider them to be something of a tier of their own, as players who should probably move in this window (but probably won’t) to continue to develop. Ilmari Niskanen would be a part of this tier if he wouldn’t be showing signs of stagnation. Lingman did well against Aberdeen, and is a legitimate spark at this level. The next step is going to be HJK wether any of us like it or not, isn’t it, but I think he’d be well suited for something like the Netherlands as well.
2 (3)	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	22	Ilves	1498	AMC/CF
Too many of his goals have been penalties and direct free kicks for my liking (not that either of those categories of goals are bad, just that they are unequally distributed, and we’re projecting here), but there’s more to his game than that (he does a ton of defensive work for a forward) and there’s a strong feeling of him carrying the team on his back at times. It’s a nice story, and winning the league before heading abroad would be a nice ending of this chapter.
3 (8)	Jasin-Amin Assehnoun	21	Lahti	1273	LW
Assehnoun is breaking out in a big way this season. Most metrics are looking positive, with dribbling being his strongest suit. At the moment, he mostly provides for his teammates (or shoots from pretty poor locations) so would like to see him become more of a goal threat by getting into the box more. I think there are the raw materials for a good player here, he just needs to keep going to establish himself.
4 (4)	Juho Hyvärinen	19	RoPS	1736	RB
Hyvärinen is intriguing because he seems to have a lot of tools in his toolbox, the question is whether he can start to use more of them at the same time. At the moment, for a poor RoPS side, he doesn’t stand out in any particular way – which could be considered natural for a right back. But at some point he is going to have to step up, or run the risk of becoming just another guy with potential. I think he needs a move, and I wonder if he’s going to get it.
5 (7)	Kalle Katz	19	RoPS (HJK)	1288	CB
Katz and Hyvärinen are similar in many ways, in that they both have a ton of potential, but similarly have a lot of questions to answer, mostly off the ball. Katz isn’t great in the air, and the more he plays, the more opponents are going to start exploiting it. He compensates by being good at carrying the ball, and passing it out of the back. Only thing is, his team isn’t always set up to utilise it. Could be better suited to play for HJK, questions is whether he will be allowed to do so.
6 (14)	Eemeli Virta	19	Lahti	1405	MC
Virta gets a bit of a boost for being one of the lynchpins in Lahti’s midfield. Lahti have surprised me a little bit, by being… competent and Virta has played a big part in that. He is a good technician and a calm passer, and does a lot of defensive work for a midfielder (93d percentile in interceptions). A player to follow.
7 (18)	Salomo Ojala	22	FC Haka	1430	CF
I struggle to place Ojala, not because he isn’t performing, but because I’m not sure what his upside is. At 22, it’s a fairly late breakout, and we’ve seen players with a similarish profile be ok-only at the next level. The question for Ojala is going to be whether he’s got another gear, or whether he’s going to establish himself in the Ilari Mettälä/Aristote Mboma tier of good-not-great Veikkausliiga centre forwards. Next year will be instructive, this year, let’s just enjoy the emergence of an Ykkönen level superstar.
8 (12)	Severi Kähkönen	19	Jaro	869	AMC
After last month’s update, I wanted to have a closer look at Kähkönen so I watched a couple of Jaro matches, and to be honest, I liked what I saw. As I’m typing this, thinking about him, he strikes me as a Sebastian Mannström type player – quick head, quick feet, capable of receiving in tight spaces and making good decisions on the ball. Can pass, dribble and has scored a couple of goals. It’s still early, but I’d be intrigued to see how he’d look one level higher.
9 (25)	Akseli Ollila	19	EIF	1288	LW
I was conservative in my placement of Ollila in the previous list, because his numbers were sort of mediocre-ish, his team was struggling, and I simply hadn’t seen him play. After watching him for a couple of games in July, I’m back on the hype train – slightly. Versus MuSa, he was absolutely unstoppable – the kind of performance that makes you sit up and pay attention. He’s young, and he has a lot nice abilities – not least of which, a tendency to score goals. He feels a bit like Lassi Lappalainen in that he can dribble some, but stands out more through smart movement off the ball.
10 (11)	Anthony Olusanya	19	Jaro	1041	CF/LW
Olusanya has had a good start to the season, and he has a lot of the intangible attributes required to become a regular goalscorer like finding him in the right place at the right time, and timing his runs behind the defensive line. He does seem a little less polished than Ollila and Kähkönen, which is why he’s placed at the end of this group. Either way, 0.55 goals per 90 is something to pay attention to.
11 (17)	Aapo Mäenpää	21	IFK Mariehamn	1148	RB
In terms of defensive activity, Mäenpää is putting up some really strong numbers – tackles, interceptions, challenges, aerial duels. He’s struggling somewhat with his passing, but as a lock on the right hand side, he’s a key component of IFK Mariehamn’s defence.
12 (5)	Ilmari Niskanen	22	KuPS	1657	RW
As the clock strikes twelve, is Niskanen turning into a pumpkin? Was last season just a mirage? Does he have some kind of unreported lingering injury issue? He finally scored his first goal of the season in July, but he did it in such a way that I wonder if it’s going to do him more harm than good, as long shooting is an activity he should spend as little time doing as possible. Get in the box, man, where you were last season!
13 (10)	Tommi Jyry	20	KuPS	931	MC
Jyry is a handy midfielder, a good passer who is fairly quick and covers a lot of ground. At the moment, though, he profiles as an Aleksi Paananen-type player, which is fairly decent in isolation, but I would like to see him add some more defensive activity, or end product, to show that he has something more in his locker.
14 (35)	Yussif Moussa	21	Ilves	935	MC/AMC
I’ve watched Moussa play a little bit in the past month, and I like what I see. He seems to have a bit of everything in his locker: he shoots a lot, he tackles a lot, he intercepts a bit, he’s on the ball a lot. The big question seems to be what his best position is, but at the moment, he looks like a contributor either way.
15 (15)	Axel Vidjeskog	18	Jaro	800	AMC
Stays in place for only playing 70 minutes in July. Not a criticism per se, but as Kähkönen and Olusanya have started to make themselves indispensable for a Jaro in ascendancy, Vidjeskog has ridden the bench.
16 (6)	Eetu Vertainen	20	HJK	1056	CF
Vertainen only played around an hour in July, and that hour was a fairly wretched hour of football. He seemed to be dropped from the squad even before HJK started splurging some of that Lappalainen cash on attacking talent. It’s a sad state of affairs in many ways, and I really think he’d do well to go on loan somewhere. The thing that keeps my hope alive is how dominant he looked for Klubi 04 last season in the brief moments he played there – when, seemingly, he was allowed to play to his strengths as a teams’ most important attacking player. A spell at a side lower down the table could do wonders for his confidence.
17 (9)	Niklas Jokelainen	19	RoPS	772	CF
Not unlike Vertainen, Jokelainen has suffered from some bad luck/bad finishing this season. Unfortunately, not unlike Vertainen, that means he’ll probably get less playing time as a result – indeed, Jokelainen has been forced to ride the pine a bit in the past month. When he plays, he’s a shot happy, dribbly, left footed striker – a lazy comparison would be… a left footed Eetu Vertainen.
18 (21)	Enoch Banza	19	KPV (HJK)	1128	RW
When Enoch Banza debuted for HJK he looked like an explosive, exciting wing prospect. Since then, he’s struggled to add to his repertoire, which is why he’s been sent on loan for the season. Statistically, he’s struggling to hit the 50th percentile in most metrics – with completed dribbles and goals scored (barely) the exceptions. I still want more from him.
19 (34)	Teemu Jäntti	19	Lahti	813	MC
Jäntti plays with impressive intensity and covers a lot of ground, but seems to lack a little something in terms of game intelligence. Being able to cover a variety of positions makes him a valuable piece in Lahti’s squad building. In theory, him and Virta should make for a good midfield partnership.
20 (16)	Anttoni Huttunen	19	MyPA	1385	LW
Huttunen has been a rare spark for a struggling MyPA, serving as a key creative outlet on the left of their midfield. He can look his age, though, and although he has shown that he can contribute in flashes, I would like to see some more consistency from him.
21 (24)	Santeri Väänänen	17	HJK	418	MC
I’m still looking for Väänänen to play a bit more to have him rise any higher. In fairness, with a couple of hundred minutes more, he’d probably be in the top 5, but he’ll have to earn it. Progress in the Europa League Qualifiers has benefitted him, as it forced HJK to rotate the squad more than usually. He’s always had bite, but now he’s started to the nice touches going forward he’s showed for the youth national team. Alex Ring is probably the closest comp at this point, but he’ll have time to establish himself as his own player if he stays at HJK.
22 (N/A)	Matias Tamminen	18	RoPS	483	CF
Tamminen scored his first Veikkausliiga goal in July with a deft finish/lucky deflection – and followed it up with a nicely taken goal last week. Like so many players considered for this list, he is still mostly projection, but he’s played a decent amount for his age, and is starting to hit some level of form. He’s got the build of a good centre forward, but has some work to do to convert that size into shots and goals.
23 (30)	Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan	20	RoPS (HJK)	408	RB/LW
After some early season struggles, Kouassivi-Benissan was loaned out to RoPS, which is a move I endorse wholeheartedly. At his best, he can be a wonderful attacking player, capable of carrying the ball forward at pace and finishing from different angles. At HJK, he hasn’t found that type of form yet, but in a less pressured environment (and maybe further forward) he might have the opportunity to do so.
24 (13)	Mehdi El-Moutacim	19	EIF	1709	GK
El-Moutacim remains the young goalkeeper making the most noise in the top two tiers of Finnish football, although it is something of a barren field at the moment. His passing is good, but he’s struggled some with some of the more traditional aspects of goalkeeping. He’s plenty experienced for his age though, and can expect to get better the more he plays.
25 (22)	Evans Mensah	21	HJK	677	RW
Mensah has played in a lot of HJK’s most important games this season, and has really struggled to make an impact. According to rumours, he was being shipped out of the club during the winter, but with little interest in his services, he stayed. In the Veikkausliiga, he is a perfectly good player, but I’m still waiting for him to take a step up.
26 (26)	Sampo Ala	17	RoPS	314	CF
Ala barely played in July so stays in place. Has managed to get on the end of a decent amount of good chances in brief playing time.
27 (N/A)	Jeremiah Streng	18	SJK	372	CF
Burst onto the scene during the winter cup games, but has struggled to retain his place in the side during the summer. Seems to be well thought of, and seems like a genuine centre forward prospect. Has looked decent in what little playing time he has received. Good in the air, especially for his age, and is capable of finding space in the box.
28 (23)	Niilo Mäenpää	21	Inter	918	MC/AMC
Stands out more for his defensive work than anything else. Is used as something of a monkey wrench for Inter, as he’s played a lot of different positions. Not the most exciting profile, but has contributed well to the form of high-flying Inter.
29 (20)	Mikko Kuningas	22	Inter	1426	MC/AMC
Much like Mäenpää, Kuningas benefits from playing a fair bit for a well functioning side. Statistically, he’s always stood out due to his end product, and he has been a creative force once again this season even if his goals have dried up a bit. Is probably one of the better players on this list, but I question whether there’s much unfulfilled upside left.
30 (32)	Daniel Rantanen	21	EIF	1396	MC
Rantanen looks a man reborn for EIF – or, reborn as himself at least, as he’s still mostly himself. He has good passing range, his long cross field passes to Akseli Ollila can be a weapon, and he likes a shot, especially from range. He has end product, which is a nice, rare bonus from midfield. Not sure if he’s more than just a good Ykkönen midfielder, though.
31 (19)	Martti Haukioja	19	VPS	1408	LB
Haukioja has played a lot for VPS this year, but has struggled to make an impact, much as the rest of his teammates. Is very young, which is easy to forget, considering he made his debut in 2016, so will get a chance to bounce back.
32 (27)	Omar Jama	21	EIF	1358	MC
Jama seems like a classic high floor/low ceiling kind of prospect. Can look a little bored, almost, with the tempo at Ykkönen level. Would like to see him bounce back to the league next year, because he has a bunch of interesting attributes – namely, being a good passer and decent dribbler.
33 (33)	Tuomas Ollila	19	KTP	1271	LB
Is coming to his own a little bit at KTP, it seems. Can be a genuine attacking threat if allowed to progress up his flank. Has a very good cross on him. Suffers from being a bit on the short side for a defender.
34 (31)	Kevin Larsson	18	HIFK	465	RW
It feels like both Larsson and Joel Mattsson are probably going to lose their places in the side as HIFK’s signings settle. I hope not – both have promise, but their performances have been inconsistent. I’ve been surprised by the amount of playing time Larsson has been given, and I’ve yet to really get what kind of player he is. One to follow up on.
35 (29)	Johannes Kytilä	19	MyPA	1703	CB
Is playing all the minutes for what is essentially the worst team in the top two tiers. Has a bit of prospect pedigree, but hasn’t been able to convert it into consistent quality performances quite yet.
36 (28)	Momodou Sarr	19	VPS	1269	CF/RW
Sarr seems to be playing mostly due to the lack of options at VPS. He looks pretty overmatched at the moment, even if his playing a lot. It doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have potential, just that it’s difficult to know whether he does or not.
37 (39)	Tiemoko Fofana	20	Ilves	1015	CF
Has played a fair bit for Ilves, and looks a decent player, but has yet to really start to contribute with shots and goals. Not to lean into the basic trope about African players, but he looks very capable of smartly using his body to shield the ball.
38 (37)	Tommi Jäntti	19	RoPS	596	AMC
Biggest moment of his season (and maybe career) so far has been the away goal at Aberdeen. Isn’t playing a lot, but is in the team consistently. Not exactly sure what to think of him.
39 (N/A)	Teppo Marttinen	22	KPV	1327	GK
Marttinen has played a lot of football for his age, which isn’t something a lot of the young goalkeepers considered can say. I’m not entirely convinced about his potential, but he’s liked enough to play, which is a good thing.
40 (42)	Alexander Jibrin	21	AC Oulu	1385	CB
Jibrin is like a poor man’s Kalle Katz in some ways – an aggressive defender who can carry the ball forward, but is a little weak in the air.
41 (40)	Rony Huhtala	21	MyPA	1146	CF
Huhtala has been a consistent producer of xG at Ykkönen level for three seasons now, yet has been plagued by playing for bad teams ever since leaving Honka in 2017. Still think he is far better than he’s given credit for, and I will die on this hill.
42 (N/A)	Mauro Severino	20	TPV	440	RW
I like Severino a lot, but three Veikkausliiga teams have already given up on him in around two years. He looks good when he plays, but I wonder about his representation, or whether there’s something else that makes it difficult to deal with him. Can hopefully settle down and show what he can do. Is tricky and a regular producer of shots when he plays.
43 (41)	Joel Mattsson	20	HIFK	1097	RW
Mattsson, much like Haukioja, seems to have been around for ages yet is only 20. Still haven’t figured out what he’s supposed to be good at, though, except doing a lot of defensive work and being quite good in the air (apparently).
44 (36)	Paavo Voutilainen	20	EIF	1425	CB
Is playing a lot, but I’m not sure if he’s being challenged. He’s playing in a back three, with a lot of experience around him. Doesn’t stand out in any way, but that can be a good thing for a centre half.
45 (N/A)	Simon Lindholm	17	EIF	676	MC
Lindholm is a funny looking player. He’s really tall, and can look a little clumsy, but he’s a surprisingly good dribbler. Not quite sure how to place him yet, and he could yet move both forward or back on the pitch, depending on what his strengths and weaknesses are as a player – he has the frame to do both.
46 (44)	Diogo Tomas	22	Ilves	550	CB/CF
Has mostly been used as a late weapon in attack from the bench due to his impressive aerial ability. Maybe needs a move if he isn’t going to play, because he’s definitely good enough to start.
47 (47)	Jonas Häkkinen	20	VPS	1420	MC/CB
Häkkinen is a versatile defensive player who is good on the ball for a defender. He’s playing for a terrible team, though, which docks him some imaginary points.
48 (43)	Anton Eerola	20	KTP	1311	MC
Eerola is a bit of a unit, and he’s quite decent at using his size to his advantage. He intercepts a lot, tackles quite a lot, wins a lot of aerial duels, contests a lot of challenges. He is a bit limited in his passing, but serves a purpose in defence.
49 (46)	Antti Ulmanen	20	EIF	799	CF
Ulmanen has been… alright for EIF. There aren’t a ton of young centre forwards playing regularly at either of the top two levels, so he gets the nod for being one of them.
50 (N/A)	Joonas Lakkamäki	17	MuSa	528	RB
Lakkamäki is a youth international right back, and it’s starting to look like he might be breaking through at Ykkönen level as well. Haven’t seen a lot of him to be honest, but will keep an eye out.

Bubbling under

Elias Mastokangas – scored his first senior goal, and has started a couple of games – a personal favourite of mine since a couple of years back.

Taaniel Usta – scored on his debut for KTP, looks quick and physical for his age.

Pyry Lampinen – managed to score two goals in two starts in July, needs to play more though.

John Fagerström – is a bit older, but has looked good after his switch to center forward, could be a candidate to do a Salomo Ojala next season.

Thanks for reading, I’ll be trying to update the list at a monthly pace, so follow me on Twitter if you’re interested!

Minor League Soccer

Bottom-up analytics

Tag: Ykkönen

Minor League Data Scouting, Part Two: identifying the players

Peak-age crisis

Veikkausliiga Tempo Q&A – Jussi Leppälahti

Who are you? What is your current role within Finnish football? What is your football background?

The Veikkausliiga tempo is slowing down, does this worry you? Why? How much?

How do you think the decrease in tempo affects the game, the players, in the short/long term?

Why do you think that the tempo is slowing?

How would you apportion responsibility for this development among these stakeholders: Palloliitto, the league, the teams, the coaches, the players, the players’ representation (parents, agents etc)?

What could these different stakeholder groups do to increase the tempo/intensity of the domestic game?

Can you think of any low hanging fruits for Finnish football – ideas which would be fairly easy to implement which could have a large impact?

The Prospect, or There and Back Again

Veikkausliiga plug and play signings

Goalkeepers

Center backs

Full backs

Central midfields

Attackers

Are Jaro on to something?

2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – Final update

2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – September update

2019 Finnish League Prospects Power Ranking – August update

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